Three takeaways from a three game week

 

Another three game week, another 7 point haul. The mood happier than it was after the same haul was secured with a 1-1 draw with Rotherham, in part due to Saints snatching a point from the jaws of defeat rather than drawing from such a dominant position. More than that it’s the bigger picture that’s really uplifting.

Southampton are now 4th and unbeaten in 6 matches. 

What have we learned during this particular Championship trilogy? 

Seemingly there’s is almost a unilateral understanding of the strongest midfield Southampton can field. Downes, Smallbone & Stu Armstrong. A home nations cocktail that has been crucial in this unbeaten run. Noteworthy that Leeds (H) was the first outing for this trio and they have only not started together once since then - Preston (A).

The Downes/Smallbone axis provides Championship nous, an understanding of the need for tactical fouls and breaking up play, while utilising both players passing qualities. Downes pass success rate of 95.4% marginally better than Smallbone’s 92.2%. 

This stability allows Stu Armstrong to do what he does best. Carry the ball. Averaging 19 carries per 90 which places him 5th amongst the squad behind THB, Jan Bednerak, KWP and Kamaldeen Sulemana. As many Championship sides operate in a mid/low block it’s common that the centre backs often find themselves in possession. Additionally KWP and Kamaldeen have the freedom of their respective channels so unsurprisingly feature at the top of this metric. Stu’s ability though to collect the ball in central areas between defensive lines is what makes this impressive. Furthermore his average carry distance (12.55m) ranks No.1 for the Saints highlighting his ability.

The concern has to be how the team operate when this triad aren’t on the pitch together. We saw without Stu against Preston creativity was lacking somewhat centrally. Given Smallbone is only one yellow card away from suspension, should he pick up a booking against Millwall it will be interesting to see how the midfield looks & functions in the following fixture.

We mention RM’s settled midfield however his use of the wider squad should also be applauded after this week. If I were to say to you reader that James Bree would emerge as an option, nay a good option at left back you probably would have laughed at me. 

Ryan Manning’s booking away to Hull took his tally to five yellow cards for this season subsequently ruling him out of the Preston match. A common school of thought amongst Saints fan was KWP would be shifted across to the left side, as has happened historically, and Bree or Holgate would get the nod at right back. KWP is arguably our best player, rightly RM didn’t want to disrupt him so Bree was given his first start at left back. 

Bree bossed it. Winning 4/6 ground duels & 2/2 aerial duels. He was rewarded with another start against Birmingham, this despite Manning being eligible to play. A great example of the meritocracy RM has installed at Southampton, take your chance and you’ll play.

Another player that RM seems to have figured out how best to use is Ryan Fraser. A definition of an impact sub. Off the bench to score the winner at Hull, off the bench to swing in the corner that caused the Ched Evans og & off the bench once more against Birmingham to provide the cross that Edozie would head down for Adam Armstrong to kill the match. 

RM often talks about mentality when it comes to this Southampton side, Fraser has that ‘dig deep’ mindset to see out games but more importantly he possesses the quality to make a difference in an attacking sense. 

A far cry from previous seasons of bringing on Elynoussi to help our rest defence. *Eye roll/face palm combo

Lastly on the squad front, personally I’m pleased for Holgate. Mainly pleased that he didn’t experience another collapse. When your two starts including the Sunderland hammering and the defeat to at the time second bottom Middlesbrough there’s a realistic chance of becoming a scapegoat. Holgate did come on late to solidify the defence at Stoke but it was nice for the Everton loanee to have a start that didn’t result in costly errors - shambolic second half kick off routine aside.

The third and final learning point is undoubtedly the most glass half-full of the lot. Despite being the joint 4th scoring team in the league you can’t help feel a ‘proper’ central striker is the final piece of the puzzle. 

Now this isn’t to say Southampton have bad attacking phases of play, quite the opposite. The fluidity of the first choice attackers is a joy to watch at times however there in-lies part of the issue. First choice being the operative phrase, take away top goalscorer Adam Armstrong - 8 goals - then options off the bench or as part of rotation can look limited. Adams hasn’t scored since August & Mara hasn’t scored full stop. The two have had opportunities to stake a claim for the position, Adams somehow blanking against Rotherham before taking a knock against Preston while Mara’s most notable misses were firing wide as a substitute at Stoke as well as not really clicking into gear in the second half against Preston.

Deadline day signing Ross Stewart is set to return in the not to distant future, the hope will be he can hit the ground running from a goalscoring perspective. A different option for RM in attack that ideally could push for double digit goal tally before the season is done.

The next three game week isn’t until the end of November with a trip to Huddersfield and two home matches against Bristol City and Cardiff. An international break and clashes with Millwall and West Brom to come first. No need to concern ourselves three game hauls anytime soon.

Let’s not underestimate the Tigers

 

As Southampton faded from footballing prominence in the late 00’s, Hull City were roaring, I mean soaring. That’s the only tiger based pun, promise.

Mavericks like Geovani & Jimmy Bullard managed by Basil Fawlty-esque Phil Brown, Hull were a relatively likeable side in the Premier League. In the last 15 years though the Tigers have had three bites at the Premier League cherry, they’ve suffered Wembley heartbreak in a FA Cup final & enjoyed a one season stint in League One. 

Very much topsy-turvy Tigers.

It’s very easy to underestimate Championship sides that don’t carry the name weight of a Leicester City or Leeds United but don’t be fooled by Hull City. Under Liam Rosenior they’re an exciting side with young talent throughout that are certainly capable of being playoff contenders.

As a fan of the sitcom Two Pints of Lager & Packet of Crisps we’ll look at Hull City through a similar lens. Two loanees and a marque signing. 

Liam Delap & Tyler Morton -  from Manchester City and Liverpool respectively - both experienced the Championship last season with varying levels of success. Morton a stalwart in Blackburn’s side whereas Delap struggled at Stoke & Preston but if Pep Guerdiola rates the striker you can afford him a rough season at two teams who, let’s be real, are underwhelming from an attacking point of view. 

They’re the loanees of note, now the standout signing. Jadon Philogene-Bidace.

1 goal and 3 assists in his 6 games since joining from Aston Villa. The left sided forward key to Hull’s attacking play, a keen dribbler with a 70% success rate so far. He links up with England U21 teammate Delap in the Tigers front three.

Noteworthy that Philogene-Bidace bagged a brace in England’s recent 9-1 win against Luxembourg. Delap too on the scoresheet. 

Two forwards in form, just what Saints want to face. Not.

Moreover, young talent isn’t the only thing that defines Rosenior’s side, they simply put are quite hard to beat. Only losing twice this campaign, both away from the MKM stadium. Once to a very late goal against Norwich City in the season opener and the other away to high flying Ipswich Town - maybe it’s something to do with trips East Anglia. In Rosenior’s 41 games in charge Hull have lost just 10 (24.39%.)

Not only are they proving hard to beat Hull City are also capable of beating the supposed ‘big boys’ of the division. Currently Hull are the only side to beat Leicester City in the Championship. A 0-1 win at the King Power Stadium courtesy of a long range Liam Delap strike. Hull won this match with just 36% possession - sounds like a familiar story right. Leicester had 21 shots yet only posted a xG of 1.20. A high shot count with a low xG value, the plot thickens.

Saints may be unbeaten in three matches however given the last performance after an international break - Leicester, 1-4 - let’s temper expectations regarding the trip to Humberside.

Boooo-gate! A Southampton saga

 

“That to me is mental” Flynn Downes reaction to the rather vocal criticism after Southampton’s 1-1 draw with Rotherham United. Worth remembering that last season Flynn Downes contributed to a European Cup winning side whereas Southampton were relegated, finishing bottom of the Premier League. Perhaps the 24 year old midfielder isn’t quite reading the room here.

Generally the noise wasn’t a direct reaction to the Rotherham game, yes Southampton should have won but being diplomatic you can chalk this particular fixture up as “one off those days” where the keeper has a blinder and the opposition score with one of only two shots on target.

You can’t though extend the unlucky narrative too far. “Unlucky” isn’t the reason we find ourselves in the Championship, failing to win games is. Southampton last season spectacularly underperformed versus xG scoring 8 fewer than the metric suggested they should. Saturday, Southampton reverted to type, if you will, scoring 1 goal while posting a xG of 3.23.

The result a tough reminder that Southampton continue to struggle killing games off. Noteworthy that Saints have only won by a 2 goal (or more) margin once this season.

Furthermore the draw with Rotherham is yet another home game Southampton have failed to register a win. 

Just 3 league wins at St Mary’s in 2023. 

In the last promotion campaign (2011/12) Southampton’s home record was excellent 16-4-3 amassing 52 points in SO14. After 6 home games the 23/24 record is 2-2-2, you extrapolate that across a season you’re looking at 8-8-7 (23 games at St Mary’s.)

You doubt a mediocre record like that will be enough to sustain a promotion challenge, especially when Southampton already find themselves 11 points off the top 2.

Being of the pace early doors has led to an even greater need to maximise points at each opportunity. This urgency primarily necessitated by a truly awful September! For all intents and purposes Leeds (H) counts as October.

It was big ‘Green Day - Wake Me up When September ends’ energy around St Mary’s.  A four game losing streak including a thrashing, two disappointing home defeats & a loss to a winless side is hardly going to rouse an already malcontented crowd. Add in the fact that had Southampton held onto the victory vs Rotherham they’d currently be sat in 6th place. A playoff spot and a feeling that they’re still firmly in the hunt for an automatic spot.

Whereas in reality the points dropped sets up a ‘race for 8th’ clash with Hull City after the international break. 

Honestly I understand Downes’ sentiment regarding “Boo-gate” as mentioned earlier it’s been a good week (7/9) but it’s been a good week in a poor month, in a poor year.     When you read the room, analyse the situation the noise is somewhat understandable. 

For Downes instead of unhelpful language like “mental,” better to let football do the talking. More weeks like the last will certainly go a longer way to silencing any noise. 

In the Channel visits: Hertha BSC Vs St Pauli

 

Beyond being a hive of Southampton FC hot-takes, first and foremost In The Channel (ITC) is a platform for football conversation. This week that conversation reinstalls Duolingo and travels across the English Channel to Germany. 

This is Hertha Berlin Vs St Pauli.

A match taking place in an iconic Olympic Stadium with pitch and fans separated by a bold blue running track that critics say creates a barrier to the action while others, like myself, argue that much like a picture frame the track focuses the eye on that rectangular structure that houses so many hopes & dreams.

This 2. Bundesliga clash the first league meeting since the 2012/13 season. St Pauli  have waited 11 years to revisit the Olympiastadion after a 1-0 defeat, 19th November 2012.

As the familiar ITC reader knows Southampton, the principal conversation topic, ply their trade in the English second division somewhat fitting the first international instalment takes place outside of the big 5 European leagues. F*ck modern football am I right?

Overarching commentary on European football aside, if I had to summarise the occasion in one word….

Nuts! 

Two words, Absolutely crazy!

Three words… 

Sheer f*cking chaos! (You get the picture.)

A reported 12,000 St Pauli fans were inside the stadium. A figure representative of those with tickets for the official away end, therefore ignoring the hundreds of FCSP who adopted the easier route of acquiring tickets in the Hertha BSC end. Of course it wouldn’t be an iconic sporting venue if there weren’t simple logistical issues. Despite the scale of the away following there were only 7 electronic turnstiles to use causing severe backlog.

A gentle reminder that on 12/12/23 Real Madrid come to town (with the Olympiastadion hosting Union Berlin UCL games) you’d imagine the attendance would A. Be much closer to the capacity of 74,745 and B. Be far greater than the 66,113 crowd managed for a German second division match.

I can’t quite imagine “Los Blancos” being quite as tolerant as the St Pauli ultras were.

On a personal note this was a fifth visit to the Olympiastadion however the first time as an away supporter. Previously I’d only seen 1-1 or 0-0 draws. No spoilers but this encounter had a well deserved winner and if you haven’t already opened another tab to check the result you’ll have to keep reading I’m afraid.

I genuinely don’t 1-2 keep that information disclosed for too long - if you know you know!

St Pauli are a very interesting side whereas Hertha are, to be polite, not. Hertha BSC seem trapped in operating in a rigid 4-4-1-1 formation be that in or out of possession. In contrast St Pauli, under 30 (yes thirty!) year old Fabian Hurzeler are very exciting. 

A stoic 5-4-1 out of possession and an expressive 3-4-3 with the ball, talent dotted all over the pitch. Wingers Elias Saad & Oladapo Afolayan (Dapo) are electric! Midfielder Marcel Hartel, a very tidy No. 10 with a wonderfully onomatopoeic name. Not forgetting the Australian duo Connor Metcalfe, who’s more than capable of scoring a screamer - check out his strike Vs Holstein Kiel - & Jackson Irvine, club captain and the embodiment of what makes St Pauli wonderfully quirky.

Unbeaten in 12 games prior to this one St Pauli were favourites pre match. The performance acting as justification for that billing. St Pauli led one nil at half time after a surging run from Saad who cut the ball back for striker Eggestien. Hertha keeper saving the original effort but the St Pauli player was first to the rebound tapping into the empty net. 

In truth St Pauli could’ve been out of sight at the end of the half with Saad, Dapo & Hartel coming close.

The second goal did arrive in the 74th minute as Hartel leapt, to quote the Welcome to Hell St Pauli podcast, like a salmon heading upstream. His header cannoning in off the underside of the bar sparking pandemonium in the away end.

Much like another team with Saint prominent in their identity, St Pauli conspired to make things difficult for themselves. Gifting Hertha a lifeline in the 83rd minute after a losing possession playing out from the back. 1-2.

Despite a late onslaught of crosses that prime Stoke City would’ve been proud of, St Pauli held on for a monumental win. The Hamburg side went top of the 2. Bundesliga after their win in Berlin. More impressively St Pauli are unbeaten in 13 games. Last defeat, regrettably, at the hands of city rivals HSV. 

In an era of few elite German coaches the emergence of Hurtzler at the helm of this St Pauli side is refreshing. Not wanting to place the manager on the market but should St Pauli not achieve promotion this year you imagine he will be on the shortlist of many Bundesliga sides.

*Authors note

This article was delayed in order to not jinx St Pauli just before the international break.  A decision I’m sure all fans of the braun weiß appreciate as Saturday 7th October they battered Nürnberg 5-1 at the Millentor to establish a two point lead at the top of the table. Long may it continue!