Friday 19th May, AM, the messianic reporter Adam Blackmore has current Swansea City manager Russell Martin leading the race to become the next manager of Southampton. Friday afternoon The Athletic report an appointment is expected next week.
The Brighton born former Scotland international defender is relatively new to management, taking charge of MK Dons in November 2019 before being headhunted for the Swansea City job in August 2021.
His first season in the Championship he led the Swans to a 15th placed finish, this season finishing 10th. Perhaps on first inspection not the most eye catching CV. So why is the Englishmen, with Scotland caps, plying his trade in Wales high upon Sport Republic’s (SR) list?
At 37 years old Russell Martin certainly meets the profile of a young ‘up and coming’ manager to helm the flagship club of SR’s proposed multi club enterprise. Multi is this instance meaning two; Southampton & Goztepe (Turkey.) While perhaps not as Premier League savvy as others in contention, he has earned a reputation for playing an attractive style of football in his short managerial career. At the culmination of the 2020-21 season only Manchester City and Barcelona had a higher average possession than Martin’s MK Dons side in Europe. Again last season Swansea had an average of 63.8% possession, second in the championship to champions Burnley.
In contrast Southampton averaged 44.5% possession.
Granted, there are relative economies of scale between the two divisions nevertheless an impressive statistic.
Ankersen’s master plan
Given the epic disaster of the mad Welshman, it’s natural to be skeptical about Rasmus Ankersen leading the search for the new manager. Particularly when two quotes from the Dane loiter in the minds of most Saints fans. Quotes synonymous with the trials and tribulations of this season
‘If it isn’t broke, think about breaking it” & ‘The league table lies’
As jarring as these maxims are the theory behind them does have some vague validity. The thinking behind the anti-establishment notion of the latter quote is that football, being a low scoring sport, is more impacted by random events in a match. A points tally therefore not totally indicative of a teams overall performance.
Metrics such as xG differential and goal difference are seen as better indicators.
So how does the potential appointment of Russell Martin shape up against this.
Unsurprisingly Martin’s Swansea side posted much better numbers in these metrics than Southampton this season. A goal difference of +4 whereas Southampton, at time of writing, -35. In terms of xG, Swansea 64.62 scoring 68 goals in total, in comparison Saints xG is 39.42 only scoring 31 goals. One side slightly over performing, one side significantly underperforming.
Promising signs for Russell-Ball.
Coaching Masterclass - Playing preferences and philosophy
When the name Russell Martin (RM) first emerged it was a Talksport/Southern Daily Echo report that he and Plymouth boss Steven Schumacher were two names on the shortlist. Bizarrely, Plymouths high flying season, winning the League One title meant Martin out of the two was the greater unknown. A combination of a slow work day and fan curiosity, I checked out Russell Martin’s Masterclass episode on YouTube (The Coaches Voice.)
Here’s the key takeaways.
Frequently when discussing tactical approach to the game RM refers to his preferences. First key preference he states is for his sides to control or have the majority of the ball. Often managers use words like preferences or principals as buzzwords however with the second most average possession in the Championship it shows a coach following through with his ideals. Defensively, it’s his preference to never have big distances or have players waiting for a counter attack. Emphasising team shape and cohesion.
Connections and distances are important to RM.
Assuming the obvious players leave, below is brief attempt at how Southampton could look as a Russell Martin side.
The Southampton way of 4-2-2-2 would almost certainly be abandoned with 3-4-2-1 / 5-2-2-1 the formation of choice. RM though describes, in possession, he wants the pitch to look like a 2-3-2-3. One of the three centre backs, usually the middle CB, stepping into midfield to help control the ball. Ball playing isn’t necessarily a quality associated with the CBs you expect to stay on in the championship. Duje Caleta-Car, probably the best passer of the remaining defenders. He alongside the returning Jack Stephens and Jan Bednarek are the best fit for this system.
The two central midfielders in this structure are a typical 4 & 6, a deep laying playmaker alongside a more typical CM. This, given expected departures, could be the hardest part to guesstimate. Will Smallbone returns from his season long loan at Stoke City you imagine he starts next season.
In the next ‘2’ are two 8s / 10s who he asks to “roll,” essentially dropping deep to draw defenders forward allowing space in behind - space for former Saint Michael Obafemi as explained in the video. If defences don’t engage these players interlink to carve openings via ball carries and smart passing. Immediately Stu Armstrong and Alcaraz spring to mind for these roles
The attacking ‘3’ comprised of two advance wing backs and a central striker. Wing backs are crucial to maintaining width in Martin’s structure. Tino Livramento or James Bree would suit playing in the right channel, hopefully Perraud stays slotting into the left channel. The striker is encouraged to play in between centre backs and not get stuck up against them. Given RM’s use of Obafemi, before his transfer to Burnley in January, Adam Armstrong best fits that type of striker profile. Equally Adams and Mara are hardly target men, both you’d assume would be able to work in this capacity.
The external noise now is that this appointment is, if not imminent, then certainly firmly in the pipeline. A new Manager, a new Head of Recruitment (Aberdeen’s Darren Mowbray) & Jason Wilcox starting as Director of Football, Sport Republic are showing intent to establish structure behind the scenes.
Hopefully these all lead to success in the upcoming campaign, in fairness Sport Republic would be hard pressed to have a worse second season.
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