Scoring & Then Conceding - A Southampton Story

 

You’re never more vulnerable defensively than just after you score’ - Southampton are the epitome of this age old adage this season having conceded within 5 minutes of scoring in three of their four Championship games this season. 

Speaking to BBC radio Solent RM commented on this issue, “The mentality when score is nowhere near good enough, we need to address that.” Undoubtedly this needs addressing as while you can dress up the statistic as 3/4 games the currently reality is this has occurred in 3 consecutive matches. Impressively a more damning commentary on already bleak events.

What though are the contributing factors as to why Southampton have succumbed to this? Is it a simple, if frustrating, case of bad luck? Or is the issue down to the current turbulence in team selection?

An unsettled XI

RM has thus far been unable to field the same starting XI for matches this season mostly due to outgoing transfers or injuries. Seven players have started every league game so far; Bazunu, KWP, Stephens, Bednarek, Manning, Edozie & Adam Armstrong. Positionally that’s the back five and two of the attacking front three. Notably of those seven none are midfielders, albeit Armstrong deputised in midfield against Plymouth.

Two of the quick fire equalisers conceded were relative ‘pot shots’ from distance - Sara for Norwich and Colback for QPR - both of whom were in front of Southampton’s defence when shooting. 

Typically this an area of the pitch where a ‘No.6’ would be positioned however Saints have struggled for a consistent presence in this area. Firstly as a result of the departing JWP, in the Norwich game Smallbone found himself to be the lone pivot in a midfield comprising of Alcaraz, Stu and himself. Furthermore (against QPR) an enforced in-game personnel switch - Jack Stephens injury in the 25th minute - Shea Charles dropped into CB and Downes handed his debut sitting as a 6 again alongside Charly and Stu.

QPR scoring in the 32nd minute.

Perhaps a lack of continuity in defensive midfield is the reason for these goals, alternatively there’s a school of thought that a midfield trio including Armstrong and Alcaraz doesn’t offer enough defensive stability. With Sunderland away up next, one of the more intimidating away grounds, it will be interesting to see if RM opts for a midfield with either Armstrong OR Alcaraz lining up with Downes and Charles to offer that defensive structure.

*For those wondering, Mason Holgate replaces Stephens in defence with the stated midfield structure.

Simply just bad luck

The numbers and the statistics don’t lie however there is a very valid notion that this occurrence could simply be a series of unfortunate events and just bad luck.

Now I’m not blaming Lemony Snicket but for this specific situation to occur in three consecutive fixtures is unfortunate, particularly when looking at the goals themselves.

As mentioned earlier both Sara’s & Colback’s strikes were from outside the box through a sea of bodies. Despite scoring these chances generated minimal xG; 0.06 for Sara and 0.02 for Colback. Based on this Southampton can feel hard done by to concede in these instances.

Lady luck may not have had a role in Ryan Hardie’s finish for Plymouth’s equaliser however Saints can feel aggrieved regarding a moment in the build up. Ryan Manning rushing out to meet Plymouth forward Morgan Whittaker on the byline, slipping just as Whittaker takes his first touch. This affords Whittaker the freedom of the right hand channel allowing him to drive toward the box before picking out Hardie with a driven cross. 

Had Manning managed to stay on his feet in this instance it’s likely the goal wouldn’t have happened. Manning won 50% (3/6) of his ground duels against Plymouth so it’s no guarantee the Irish international would have won the ball back immediately however by halting Whitaker’s progress Edozie should have been able to help double up on the Plymouth attacker.

Ultimately despite conceding these goals Southampton are yet to lose in the Championship. As RM said to BBC Radio Solent “We are winning while learning and winning while building” and that’s an important takeaway. Southampton are not quite the finished article, not quite the final evolution of RM-Ball and hopefully we can begin to separate ourselves from the aforementioned adage starting against Sunderland on Saturday.

Andreas Georgson & The Sparsity of Southampton

 

From Yorkshire to Devon the away wins keep coming. In Yorkshire we saw a marker in terms of what to expect from Southampton this season whereas in Devon we perhaps witnessed that the squad might be looking short in some positions. More importantly we didn’t concede from a set piece - let’s focus on that first

A word on Andreas Georgson 

Set pieces have frequently plagued Southampton defensively, conceding from these situations in their first 3 games (league & cup) this campaign

Against Plymouth though Southampton did not, actually scoring the winner from a corner in added time. Andreas Georgson had been brought in - hired day the season kicked off - there’s now signs of progress.

Notably before each substitution against Plymouth the last coach each player interacted with before taking the field was Georgson. RM would have an arm around the player, giving presumably a quick pep talk, before the Swede came over wielding an iPad with instructions for the oncoming player.

A visible presence on the sideline enabling accountability to these situations. 

Defensively Southampton massively restricted Plymouth’s chances from set plays as the Green Army generating a set play xG of 0.04 compared to the 0.68 of Norwich the week before, as 5’8 Jonathan Rowe scored an uncontested header from a corner for the Canaries.

From an attacking standpoint Southampton frequently targeted the near post with Manning’s corner deliveries - this routine leading to the winning goal. Ball whipped in with Jack Stephens rising at the near post, he though unable to flick the ball on so Adam Armstrong leapt to follow up however Plymouth GK Connor Hazard clawed his effort off the line. Thankfully there was Che to tap home. 

Now he’s settled into his role a bit more there certainly are promising signs for Georgson, while Plymouth do not possess the greatest threat from these situations in the Championship it is nice to think the fan base collectively can stop sh*ting themselves at every single set play conceded.

Somehow it’s looking a bit sparse around here.

Coming into the Championship season Southampton had a very bloated squad. Trimming the excess fat was first up on the agenda on Wilcox & Martin. 

In total 10 senior players from last season have departed and more may follow. Now this seasons squad is looking slightly light in numbers as highlighted in the Plymouth game.

Injuries to Smallbone and Alcaraz resulted in an unlikely midfield pairing of the Armstrongs alongside Shea Charles. With minimal options for replacements on the bench, though Aribo is capable of doing a job in the midfield how trusted is Aribo in this position? The Nigerian nevertheless did replace Stu after 83 minutes the longest the Scot has lasted in a match this season, although had the replacement available been more naturally suited to this position you’d imagine Stu might’ve been relieved earlier.

This example is in central midfield but the premise can be shifted around the pitch to highlight certain frailties.

For example should Stephens or Bednerak miss a match due to injury or suspension the next CB in line is Lyanco and you get the feeling he might not be sticking around. After him, short of dropping Shea Charles back, you’re probably looking at young Zach Awe who recently joined the U21 set up at Southampton. The rumour mill does have England U21 CB Taylor Harwood-Bellis linked with a potential loan move to the Saints. The Manchester City man, who spent last season with Burnley, does fit the apparent ‘Hey I know a guy’ approach to recruitment this summer. Like the Shea Charles deal this would enable Jason Wilcox to utilise his network to identify targets

Manning and Downes too fall into this approach, both having played under Martin before. The former a free agent eliminating the need to liaise with another club.

An archaic contrast to data led recruitment elsewhere. Perhaps that’s too strong a narrative, apologies.

RM did say in his pre match press conference he expects more than one or two signings before the window closes. With minimal external noise surrounding incomings it will be interesting to see who comes through the door. You can’t imagine Swansea would be too keen to open discussions for forward Joel Piroe, even if they were a potential ‘Southampton tax’ could make the fee eye watering. 

That exodus came, how are we looking?

 

Three games into the season, a sense that Southampton’s new identity is taking shape. The anticipated exodus is underway and on the pitch the voids left by departures are being filled.

All three recognised central midfielders from last season - Diallo, Lavia & JWP - have left the club this summer creating a shortage in this position. Enter Will Smallbone. Having spent last season in the Championship with Stoke, he emerged as one of the first names on the team sheet for this season. Excelling against both Sheffield Wednesday and Norwich City in his role as a deep lying playmaker.

Typically he left the field against Norwich injured and likely out for a month.

Shea Charles presumably deputises in this role against Plymouth on Saturday - Charles whom had been signed to replace Lavia now the sole central midfielder available to start. 

Appreciate the caveats that the Flynn Downes deal may be completed in time for Saturdays match and that Stu Armstrong & Alcaraz both featured in central midfield against Norwich. It is perhaps naive to assume Downes can stroll straight into a starting place without the training time to establish the ‘connections’ that is RM’s preference. Stu and Charly both offer attacking impetus but offer little defensive stability, potentially leaving Charles as a ‘one man band’ in front of the defense.

I do believe the midfield Saturday will comprise of Charles, Alcaraz and Stu with the same level of chaotic, end to end football as the weekend before to be expected. Downes, if available, may feature later in the game to replace a tiring Stu.

Clearly the midfield has seen an overhaul given personnel changes however in JWP you lose far more than a name on the team sheet. Captain, penalty and general set piece taker are all roles that needing filling. It appears we have.

Jack Stephens was named as the new captain. From the outside looking in he appears adept at organising those around him on the pitch, in previous seasons he was responsible for collecting fines amongst the playing squad and most importantly Martin backs him.

While JWP wasn’t prolific from the spot, at least you knew who was stepping up to take penalties. Thankfully against Norwich we were treated to finding out who has taken the mantle. 

Adam Armstrong confidently dispatching two spot kicks against former Saint Angus Gunn - now 3 goals in 2 games for Adarma.

In pre season we were treated to glimpses of new set piece takers, notably Ryan Manning whipping a free kick in for Charles to score against Bournemouth. For the first time in a long time it appears Southampton may have some variety in their set piece approach.

Corners against Norwich split between Manning and Smallbone depending on the side of the pitch, both firing in-swingers towards the opposition box. The pair sharing free kick duty too, Smallbone’s free kick delivery resulting in penalty number 1 last Saturday. Attacking set pieces offered optimism going forward although as early mentioned the Smallbone injury might scupper this.

With Stephens as captain, Armstrong on penalties & Manning/Smallbone on set pieces that four players to replace the void left by ever reliable JWP. A lot of change so far and there’s an overarching sense that it’s not done yet.

Southampton: The Bold and The Brave

 

It’s happened! A win! The first competitive win since March 4th, our Championship campaign underway nicely.

Stylistically the performance was as expected however the dominance Southampton showed was astounding - setting a new championship record for passes (987) in a match, registering 80% possession.

Russell Martin (RM) consistently emphasised pre match that the performance will be determined by the players courage & bravery to play the way he wants. Had Southampton been in their black and gold third strip, there could’ve been a Southampton/Batman: The Bold and The Brave mash up analogy. 

Alas not to be, a botched headline will have to do.

Having been challenged to show these qualities, great composure was shown by Stephens & Bednerak, players you wouldn’t have considered as ball playing centre backs yet adeptly carried out manager’s instructions. Manning may be new to the club but for role he is playing this was not his first rodeo, seamlessly executing the ‘Guerdiola’ style full back inversion. On the other side of the pitch, the link up play between KWP & Tella reminiscent of prime Bertrand/Redmond.

With certain players a base level of quality is expected, Alcaraz and JWP are both technically superior than the league they find themselves in so their performance levels were no real shock. Will Smallbone on the other hand, eye catching. 

Most passes completed in the match (142) with a 97% accuracy and 5 ball recoveries - one of which lead to Alcaraz’s shot that went marginally wide. The academy graduate dictating play throughout.

Edozie too shining, sending Wednesday right back ‘for a hot dog’ on multiple occasions. If he could shoot, oh boy we’d be cooking!

Let’s for a second halt the positivity train - hate to do so but devil’s advocate and that.

Southampton registered an xG of 1.34 from 23 shots suggesting that while we did score twice the quality overall of those chances were low. 

A common criticism of previous RM sides is they struggle to break down teams to carve out ‘proper’ chances. With respect to his former clubs the talent pool at Southampton is significantly better, players have the initiative to sniff out opportunities. As seen with the winning goal, JWP noticed a lapse in concentration regarding Wednesday’s defensive shape, he drifted forward and instinctively pulled the ball back for Adams to score. 

In pre season a lot of the goals conceded were in transitional moment, concern grew among supporters that archetypal bottom half Championship sides sit back, defend deep and could catch Saints on the break. During this thought process we collectively forgot how truly woeful we were at defending set pieces last season.

Sure enough Wednesday’s equaliser came from a corner.

Southampton have appointed a new set piece coach, Andreas Georgson from Malmo FF. His appointment announced earlier in the day on the 4th so can be forgiven for this particular goal. It will be interesting to see how Saints look against Norwich from a set piece perspective after the Canaries caused Hull City numerous problems from corners in there opening match.

Conceding from a set piece and a relatively low xG, not bad as the two ‘nitpicks’ from the game. The former is hardly new and it appears steps are in place to improve this. Secondly, the only real statistic that matters is goals not expected goals providing the ball does cross that white line it’s all good.

Ultimately Southampton are off and running in the Championship. The possession heavy nature of the performance creating headlines and turning heads with the passing records set. 

Only five more wins needed to match last years tally!

*Bonus feature, thank you for reading this far! 

What did we learn about August opponents?

The Championship fully underway, with two home fixtures against Norwich and QPR sandwiching a little 153 mile trip to Plymouth what can we takeaway from the opening games for these sides.

Norwich 2-1 Hull City

Norwich have signed experienced players this summer in Ashley Barnes, Jack Stacey and Shane Duffy - all of whom started against Hull City.

Statistically Norwich dominated their match; 57% possession, 9 corners & 28 shots. Their ability from corners could be a concern for Southampton, centre back Duffy managed 4 shots all from corners, hitting the woodwork once. 

However, as seen with the goal they conceded, their back line isn’t the most comfortable when put under pressure. The pace & persistence of Armstrong or Tella may prove fruitful going forward.

Plymouth 3-1 Huddersfield

After some frankly awful attempts at clearing a cross by Huddersfield, Plymouth took an early lead in a first half primarily dominated by the visitors. The Terriers equalising in the 45+6th minute as Plymouth looked shakey after periods of sustained pressure.

In the second half it must be said that Plymouth looked good, very good. Remarkable fluidity of the front three of Mumba, Hardie & Whittaker. Mumba is direct, dynamic and blisteringly quick, his goal Boufal-esque as he restored Plymouth’s lead. Moments later Whittaker and Hardie combined to finish the scoring, the former stealing the ball ahead of a Huddersfield midfielder to deftly slip in Hardie to slot home.

This was Plymouth’s first Championship game since 2010 and they didn’t look out of place in the slightest in the second half.

Watford 4-0 QPR

Norwich looked decent and Plymouth looked good whereas QPR looked woeful. Conceding inside 1 minute against Watford, easily played through. 

Like Sheffield Wednesday, QPR are tipped for relegation, in theory Southampton should dominate the R’s throughout. RM will be looking to be more clinical this time around - Watford scoring all four in the first half, killing the game. Southampton should look to do the same.

Wednesday Vs Southampton - The mini preview

 

August 17th 2013, the last time Southampton won their opening fixture of a league campaign. A last minute Rickie Lambert penalty securing a 0-1 win at West Brom to start Mauricio Pochettino’s first full season at the club. The seasons that followed would be littered with successes including European football, multiple top 10 finishes and a domestic cup final. 

That era is long gone. Onto the new one.

Aiming to break the 10 year duct Russell Martin’s Southampton open their season - nay the Football League season - away to Sheffield Wednesday. Under the lights at Hillsborough the chance for a new dawn, equally a cruel and humbling welcome to the Championship is very possible.

On paper there is an argument for this fixture being an ideal opener for the Saints. Wednesday since their playoff heroics seem a disjointed club, many Championship content creators tipping them for relegation under new manager Xisco Munoz. Munoz differing completely in play style to his predecessor Darren Moore. Moore preferring a resolute 5-3-2 while Munoz a typically 2010s Spanish 4-2-3-1.

Alongside implementing this new approach there appears to be a vast disconnect between supporters and the hierarchy, in particular chairman Dejphon Chansiri who during the press conference to announce Xisco Munoz he chose to instead take the opportunity to retaliate to former Leeds player Carlton Palmer surrounding his comments over Darren Moore’s departure. 

An early Southampton goal could led to a very toxic atmosphere in the ground. 

As mentioned though this match is the curtain raiser. An iconic stadium such as Hillsborough with the romance of the floodlights, the atmosphere prior to any goals will be electric but could the spectacle be too much for what is still a young Southampton squad - average age of the starting XI Vs AZ Alkmaar, 21.2 years.

Saints may need to weather the opening stages.

Bizarrely being away from home may suit Southampton. Having not won a competitive fixture since March 4th, St Mary’s stadium as the last season concluded became a dreary, ‘put us out of our misery’ style atmosphere. Had this encounter been at St Mary’s the hangover from the previous doom and gloom may have continued. Away from home, in front of over 3000 travelling fans, there will be pressure naturally but it will not be the cauldron of disappointment that home fixtures such as Bournemouth, Palace & Fulham were last season.

Contextually, Southampton haven’t won an opening day fixture since the 2013/14 season and haven’t won a competitive match since March 4th (1-0 Leicester) yet in terms of expectation, both internally as a fan base and externally, Southampton are favourites. Something they have not been for a long time, probably last time was Grimsby in the FA Cup and we know how that went.

The ‘favourites’ tag extends beyond the game, indeed Southampton are widely tipped to be among the promotion challengers - understandably so. A win Friday night sets the tone, it sets the pace for the competition. Whereas defeat, paired with a poor performance could humble a currently optimistic fan base.

Come Saturday morning Southampton could be at the top of the mountain or be rooted to it’s base.