Is there such a thing as too much possession?

 

Southampton have had over 75% possession in three games this season and only won one of those - away to Sheffield Wednesday. The other two matches both ending 1-1. Rotherham at St Mary’s and most recently Huddersfield away. 

When bordering on total dominance of the football, why is it Southampton can’t seem to get over the line? Is there a thing as too much possession?

Let’s take a look.

Post match Russell Martin said “It's really similar to the Rotherham game so maybe the players felt this is nice, but it is never easy. Our mentality has cost us two points.” In both matches Southampton dominated the shot count as well as ball possession. Mustering 12 shots in the first half against both sides. In contrast Rotherham and Huddersfield managed 1 shot each in the first half of their respective games. Despite the shot dominance Southampton only scored once in the first half of both games failing to turn the screw and be ruthless. That feeling of “nice” on the pitch causing complacency and that’s the mentality RM refers to. Sadly it’s becoming an all too familiar story this season.

Southampton have only secured a two goal lead twice this season, Leeds and Birmingham. Unsurprisingly these are two of the more convincing wins this season. Arguably making it more frustrating that Southampton are able to turn the screw against a team of Leeds quality but have struggled against supposed lesser sides. Returning to the ideas of complacency setting in.

The above shows the momentum graph vs Huddersfield. These graphs are not only good for checking when to cash out on your bets, they also provide an accurate reflection of the game state. As seen the blue is hardly present in the first half yet the second shows sustain periods of Huddersfield momentum. A visual aid highlighting Saints lack of ruthlessness.

Let’s park the mentality element briefly. Southampton have won 7 games by a single goal margin, which in itself takes a certain type of mentality. So what else could have caused these two draws? When Southampton were so ball dominant on both occasions.

The short answer is Saints, frustratingly,  concede from low quality chances. The equalising goals in both instances were not neatly carved out chances. One was a lob from 25 yards out and the other was an in-swinging cross that evaded everyone before nestling into the far side netting. Both shots generated a xG of 0.01.

In laymen’s terms these chances are scored once in every 100 efforts. 

Not to get all ‘OPTA Analyst’ on everyone but xG value represents the likelihood of the ball going in at the moment the shot is taken so it doesn’t account for the accuracy of the shot itself. On the other hand xGOT (expected goals on target) refers to the likelihood of a goal given the original effort was in fact on target. I emphasise the difference primarily to provide a different value more reflective on the quality of the goals conceded by Saints. Ben Jackson’s goal generated a xGOT of 0.58, considering Adam Armstrong’s opener posted 0.93 xGOT it was a relatively low quality chance for Huddersfield.

The real damming implementation of this metric is Jordan Hugil’s lob. An xGOT of 0.11 meaning even with the effort being on target the likelihood of a goal was 1 in 10. 

Low quality chances or fluke goals are scored frequently throughout the Football League. Therefore it’s inevitable that at some point Saints will be on the receiving end of one. Although if you’re only leading by one goal the margin for error is smaller, you cannot afford to conceded silly goals.

Succumbing to these type of chances wouldn’t be an issue had Saints been more ruthless in their approach. After Adam Armstrong the next highest scoring forward is Che Adams (3) who hasn’t scored since August. Forward players need to start contributing more with goals to help establish a cutting edge.

The possession number is the statistic that stands out however I don’t think it’s a case of ‘too much.’ Simply put Southampton are not clinical enough throughout matches. The chances, as shown by the shot counts, are there the issue is taking them. Having rickety moments doesn’t help either but if you can establish a substantial lead it doesn’t matter

The Hidden International Break

 

An international break - again. The third so far this season. Thankfully, now this one is over the action is non-stop until the middle of March. That doesn’t mean there isn’t international football taking place. Two inter-continental championships take place in January but the English domestic game carries on. Sides such as Southampton will need to adapt accordingly.

These competitions are the AFC Asian Cup & the African Cup of Nations (AFCON) with the latter having an impact on Southampton.

Joe Aribo and Kamaldeen Sulemana were both called up by their respective nations (Nigeria & Ghana) for this international break for World Cup 2026 qualifiers, these are the last squads before the tournament in the new year. Barring any injuries these two should make the cut. 

After originally being selected, Kamaldeen did withdraw from the Ghana squad for their qualifies against Madagascar and Comoros. I imagine he may not pull out of the final AFCON squad.

AFCON takes place from January 13th to February 11th in this period Southampton face; Sheffield Wednesday (H), Swansea (A), Hull City (H) or a potential FA Cup 4th round match however given the Carabao Cup attempt this season let’s stick with the assumption it’ll be Hull, Rotherham (A) and Huddersfield (H). Bristol City (A) only is two days after the AFCON final so should Ghana/Nigeria be involved in this then this game is also a right off. 

That’s potentially six games without two first team players. This begs two questions; will Saints miss them? and what are the alternatives?

Kamaldeen has featured in all 11 games since overcoming his early season injury. In Southampton’s unbeaten 8 game run Kamaldeen has started all but one (Preston) continuously causing nightmares for defenders. With 3 assists and no goals Kamaldeen, statistically, isn’t setting the Championship alight however he certainly passes the ‘eye test.’ There’s a palpable sense of excitement amongst Southampton fans and fear from the opposition when he gets the ball. The Ghanaian international averages 5.1 successful dribbles per 90 the most of any Southampton player. A nice metric to reinforce the notion that Kamaldeen gets fans out of their seats as he takes the game to opponents.

Undoubtedly he’ll be missed.

In contrast Aribo, as it stands, will be a less noticeable absentee. Managing just 147 minutes this season across 11 matches culminating in zero goal contributions. In fairness to Aribo he has only featured in dribs and drabs, only one start in an underwhelming team performance against Ipswich. The lack of goal return is unsurprising. With 4 big chances created in these 147 minutes Aribo theoretically creates a chances every 37 minutes oddly this is a better rate than Kamaldeen - generating a chance every 61 minutes - granted Aribo’s sample size is much smaller. The small sample size though does suggest that as an option of the bench Aribo is capable of helping the team create goalscoring opportunities.

Undoubtedly he won’t be missed as much as Kamaldeen however for the Championship Aribo is an adequate squad player.

With regard to the alternatives Southampton will need to replace the wide left forward and an attacking option off the bench. The former is the easier place to start. 

A common tactical switch throughout games this season has been the introduction of Ryan Fraser as a substitute. The Scot has goal involvements in each of the last five matches coming off the bench. He would be the obvious beneficiary in Kamaldeen’s absence. Although let’s not discount Samuel Edozie who impressed in the early matches of the season however the youngster lacks a little defensive solidity that Fraser provides - I.e Preston’s second goal. Alternatively Alcaraz is often deployed in wide roles, the prospect of a front three of Charly, Stewart & Adam Armstrong is mouthwatering.

Replacing Kamaldeen is a starting XI issue whereas replacing Aribo is more of a seating plan dilemma for the subs bench. Perhaps Kamari Doyle may benefit from the available seat, Doyle the most obvious like for like replacement of the youngsters at RM’s disposal. In reality the Aribo conundrum is not really a priority but fun to speculate nevertheless.

If a 46 game season doesn’t provide enough selection dilemmas with the Saturday/Tuesday turnarounds then the departure of two first team players in January will certainly add another complexity for RM to mull over. A problem not in the immediate future thankfully.

Adam Armstrong, Southampton’s goal machine

 

“He stands a total 5’7, Adam, Adam

He’ll take us to the Premier League Adam, Adam

He strikes the ball so sweetly

He wears the shirt of James Beattie 

Adam Armstrong Southampton’s goal machine”

A homage to the great Rickie Lambert’s chant. The big man fulfilled the prophecy of the song in 2012 as Saints reached the Premier League. This time around it’s our little man leading the charge back to the top flight - note the use of little not wee, Fraser’s already had his article.

Adam Armstrong truly is captain fantastic with 9 goals in 16 games, the Championship’s second top scorer. All of these goals have come from inside the penalty area however there’s variety to his finishing. 

Let’s take a look.

Goal 1 - Sheffield Wednesday (A)

Easily the most fortuitous of the lot. The lightest of deflections on Nathan Tella’s shot enough to take it past Dawson in the Wednesday goal. Pleased he got off the mark in the opening fixture of the campaign but you can’t say too much about this one.

Armstrong’s only headed goal of the season. Unsurprisingly.

Goals 2 & 3 - Norwich City (H)

For a long time set pieces whether they were from the edge of the pitch, outside the penalty area or inside you know who was taking them. JWP. Sadly he’s gone and the first game after his departure fans got an answer to a burning question; Who’s on penalty duty? 

The answer being Adam Armstrong. Twice striking past former Saint Angus Gunn. Converting one penalty in a match is tough enough, to convert two is a whole different level of mental strength. Armstrong has started off perfectly as penalty taker for the Saints. 

Watch him miss the next one.

Goal 4 & 8 - QPR & Birmingham City (H)

A break to the chronological flow but both these were archetypal poachers finishes. Half volleys struck low and hard. One scored in front of the Chapel Stand to seal a first home win since March meanwhile the other scored in front of the Brummies in the Northam Stand dampening their hopes of a comeback. 

Seven out of nine of Armstrong’s goals have been scored at St Mary’s. Home form is crucial in sustaining a promotion push, whenever he scores at St Mary’s we don’t lose - so far.

Goals 5,6 & 7 - Middlesbrough (A) & Leeds (H)

It’s rare in the Championship for Southampton to have space in behind opposition due to the frequency to which low blocks are utilised however Boro and Leeds are two of the more progressive sides. Armstrong punished the space with excellent movement.

In both these matches he had been deployed from the right with Che (Boro) or Alcaraz (Leeds) playing centrally. As a result of the fluidity of the front line Armstrong found himself beyond the supposed central striker. Against Boro his diagonal run across the penalty area saw him strike from centre-left of the box whereas a shallower run against Leeds saw him twice from almost identical positions in the inside right channel. Two very different runs but three top finishes.

Goal 9 - West Brom (H)

Confident & clinical. Last season Armstrong would’ve swung at it first time and ultimately missed but now he’s fully found his groove. The ability to take such a good first touch before slotting it home highlights his improvement this season. Another moment Armstrong has come up clutch for the Saints.

That’s the lot. That’s the nine. Split into five relatively different sub-categories. Each - with the exception of the first - demonstrating qualities of Armstrong’s game. Arguably the most exciting thing about Armstrong’s form this season is, and I say this with the greatest of respect, he hasn’t been phenomenal in a game yet. Aside from the opening 45 minutes against Leeds there hasn’t been a match that he has noticeably dominated in its entirety. Armstrong is like pre-Infinity War Thanos, casually acquiring goals - or ‘Infinity Stones’ - preparing himself for the next third of this season. Something internally will snap, if you pardon the pun, we could truly have a monster on our hands. 

The previously mentioned Rickie Lambert amassed 27 goals in 42 games in the last promotion season, a rate of 0.64 goals per game. Armstrong’s rate currently stands at 0.52 not too far behind the Southampton legend. If he were able to survive the full season fitness wise we could see 25 goals this season. That’d certainly do nicely.

Ryan Fraser - Southampton’s Super Sub

 

“Never fall in love with a loan player.” That’s the expression right? Three of the four loanees this season could be associated with this statement however one in particular is quickly emerging as a fan’s favourite.

Admittedly a fairly ambiguous opening stanza for an article with a name drop in the title but it does have to be said that THB & Downes in their own way are making a mark at Southampton - both staples of the XI - unsurprising Saints’ form improving had coincided with improved performances from these two. The man of the moment though is Ryan Fraser. The ‘wee man’ with a point to prove.

*For those keeping score, Holgate is the fourth loanee who probably won’t get a mention in this article.

Not too harsh to say the announcement of Fraser wasn’t the most inspiring transfer of the summer but it’s proving to be a crucial addition. In the last four games the Scot has 2 goals and 2 ‘goal involvements.’ I use inverted commas for goal involvements as neither of these would be considered proper assists. His corner led to the own goal away to Preston and his cross was headed down by Samuel Edozie before Adam Armstrong swept home against Birmingham City. A pre-assist if you will.

All of these coming on as a substitute. Southampton’s super sub!

These involvements have helped Saints go unbeaten in 7 games and up to 4th in the Championship. The latest goal at Millwall clinching three points on a weekend Leicester and Ipswich dropped points reducing the gap slightly. A point at The Den wouldn’t have been a bad result but with Leicester losing to 3rd place Leeds while Ipswich only manage a draw at Birmingham City. A win is massive, as has been Fraser’s contribution. 

Furthermore it appears Fraser actively wants to be here. His comments and conduct post match sound more passionate than a generic media trained template response. Speaking to the club’s media; “Massive thank you for the support you’ve given today and throughout the season so far. That one was for you today, and hopefully everyone gets home safe and we can give you another win at home to West Brom next week.” 

Moreover Fraser firmly basked in the glory at Millwall, running over to the away support after the final whistle with Edozie performing Cristiano Ronaldo’s trademark “Siu” celebration. He would later run back towards the remaining Saints support to bust out Russell Martin’s trademark triple fist pump.

There is the caveat that his Newcastle days are done and he seemingly needs to find a new club but his commitment thus far cannot be ignored. In the left wing position he is behind Kamaldeen Sulemana for a starting birth, when though he does enter the fray he offers a unique blend of stability and impetuous. The overall structure & cohesion isn’t affected and the attacking element remains. A double edged sword of a substitution.

It would appear RM is keen on his fellow Scot extending his south coast stay; “We want good players and we want good characters - Ryan definitely fits into that.”Therefore it doesn’t count as falling in love with a loan player if they go on to become permanent. It’s worked out well with regards to KWP after his initial loan spell to Southampton maybe Fraser will be a similar situation.