Has the lack of Carabao Cup action been beneficial to Southampton?

 

Last season was awful. Arguably the only bright spark was the Carabao Cup run. Semi finalists and an exceptional victory over the soon to be treble winners Manchester City. A win so incredible it earned the now unemployed Nathan Jones a Coaching Masterclass video on YouTube.

Success in the competition this season however was none existent. Saints fans were treated to an extra round, having not featured in the First Round since 2011, unfortunately the campaign went no further as Southampton lost 3-1 at League Two Gillingham.

Has this actually been a blessing in disguise? Given the frequent Saturday/Tuesday nature of the Championship, has the absence of a domestic cup competition been beneficial to Southampton?

Saints fell at the first hurdle on August 9th, the Second Round was played W/C 28th August. Southampton were unbeaten in their first four league games with a trip to Sunderland to come. The lack of a midweek match should have allowed Southampton the chance to cope with the final week of the transfer window and fully prepare themselves for the longest away trip of the season.

Southampton went on to be battered 5-0 at the Stadium of Light.

In reality there’s no connection between the Carabao Cup exit and the heavy defeat. There were far more mitigating factors that led to this loss; the uncertainty caused by the transfer window closing, conceding inside one minute, Jack Stephens injury combined with Taylor Harwood-Bellis not ready to make his debut & who could forget Flynn Downes still recovering from food poisoning.

With regard to this gameweek you can’t really answer the titular question however when you take a look at the 3rd round the importance of free time for the Saints really comes into play.

Matches in the 3rd round took place W/C 25th September. After 3 defeats in an 8 day period - Leicester, Ipswich & Middlesbrough - Southampton found themselves with a free midweek before a daunting home clash with Leeds United on the horizon.

Southampton went on to beat Leeds 3-1.

This is where Southampton’s absence from this competition begins to have a positive impact. Against Leeds Russell Martin would, for the first time in the season, start Kamaldeen, A. Armstrong & Alcaraz implementing an asymmetrical attacking system that allowed Kamaldeen to stay wide left while KWP marauded down the right as Armstrong cut in. This tactical switch by RM was too much for Leeds and demonstrated an adaptability to his managerial style. The free time after the Middlesbrough defeat certainly helped Southampton settle down and find their levels.

This victory over Leeds kickstarted Southampton’s upturn in form and by the time the Fourth Round rolled around (W/C 30th October) Saints were 6 unbeaten. A trip to Millwall to come.

There’s a school of thought that when you’re winning you just want the games to keep coming, to carry on the hot streak. The Championship schedule provides the quick fire nature of fixtures anyway without adding extras to the calendar. Prior to the W/C 30th October Southampton had played a 3 game week securing 7/9 points available. A rest was needed.

Southampton beat Millwall 1-0. Again utilising the free midweek and continuing the unbeaten run.

This week sees the competition reach the Quarter Final stage. Would Saints have even made it this far? Who knows. However it does fall at a critical point in the Championship calendar so let’s take a look anyway.

The only Championship team remaining is Middlesbrough, ironically they came through the bracket via a route Southampton were eliminated from. I’ll show my working to clarify this.

Gillingham beat Southampton, Luton beat Gillingham, Exeter beat Luton & Middlesbrough beat Exeter. A tenuous link nevertheless in some parallel universe Southampton are the side in the Quarter finals. 

With an upcoming hectic festive period of fixtures - 4 games in 10 days - a domestic cup Quarter Final would be a truly unnecessary distraction. Southampton are no longer a Premier League side able to view this competition as a chance of silverware, instead the league has to be priority number one. A full week between Blackburn and QPR matches should be perfect for rest/recovery.

At the time the defeat to Gillingham was tough to take given the respective divisions, ultimately it was a defeat that would always need hindsight to make sense of it. Aside from a horror show against Sunderland the other ‘free weeks’ in the calendar have led to victories. Another win at QPR this Saturday would help this narrative.

Watch out for the yellows against the Sky Blues

 

Southampton are no strangers to discipline related suspensions this season. Ryan Manning & Jan Bednerak have both missed a match this season as a result of an accumulation of yellow cards. Thankfully the pair missed separate matches with Manning ruled out of Preston North End (A) and Bednerak missed the visit of West Bromwich Albion at St Mary’s. 

Five yellows will result in a one game suspension as it stands, going into the clash with Coventry City, four players are just one booking away from this; Adam Armstrong, Shea Charles, Flynn Downes & Will Smallbone. Theoretically four first team players could be ruled out of Saturday’s clash with Blackburn Rovers. How could this affect Southampton?

An Adam Armstrong suspension would probably raise most alarm bells from a fan’s perspective. He’s top scorer with 12 goals in 20 matches as well as being Southampton’s top assister with 5. Undoubtedly he has been crucial this campaign and would be sorely missed particularly against a Blackburn side that are the fifth highest scoring team in the Championship with 34 goals this season. 

For reference Southampton have scored 32.

After Armstrong the next highest scorer is Adams (4) who has only netted once since August. The Scot is the natural striker replacement should a suspension occur however with the absence of Kamaldeen Sulemana due to injury, Adams has started the last two games so another alternative would be needed somewhere else in attack. 

In terms of a cohesive attacking system RM seemingly has two go to set ups. The standard front three that had great success with Kamaldeen keeping wide left dribbling at defenders while the central and right sided attackers - often Armstrong & Alcaraz - had the freedom to roam allowing KWP to advance forward into the right channel. The other set up featured two central strikers (Armstrong & Adams) with Charly Alcaraz operating as an archetypal ‘No. 10’ behind them.

Would RM persevere with two strikers? Utilising Mara alongside Adams. This would feel unlikely as that would leave no natural striker option on the bench. Reverting to the front three could prove the most optimal approach for a one off game. Adams central, Alcaraz drifting in from the right, leaving the wide left slot available for an Edozie or Fraser type.

As a singular absentee Armstrong would seemingly have the greatest impact however with the other three players at risk being central midfielders this will pose a completely different selection dilemma.

The Downes-Smallbone axis has been a key feature of Southampton’s success in their unbeaten run. The absence of both noticeable against Watford. A stubbornness was missing in the middle of the park. RM has made some rather abstract midfield selections at times this season however when these two and Charles aren’t available there’s a distinct lack of a defensive midfield option.  

A midfield of Aribo, Alcaraz & Stu Armstrong would be great to watch however possibly not the most defensively sound. It will be interesting to see the minutes given to these three midfield players in the Coventry match should there be a conscious effort to afford a crippling suspension hit.

Southampton rank second in the division for yellow cards, 53. Working out at 2.65 bookings per match the likelihood is someone will be booked against Coventry. It’s hardly that Southampton are an overly ‘dirty’ side. They only commit 10.1 fouls per 90, which ranks 16th out of the 24. Seemingly, in midfield particular, the success rate of their tackles lends to volume of yellow cards. Downes: 60%, Smallbone: 62.5% & Charles: 47.6%, bizarrely Stu Armstrong - a traditionally more advanced midfield player - has the best tackle success rate out of the midfield contingent at 68.8%.

A couple of clumsy tackles tonight against Coventry could cause some serious selection headaches. Hopefully post match this article is sheer conjecture and not forward planning for a quartet of suspensions.