Southampton are no strangers to discipline related suspensions this season. Ryan Manning & Jan Bednerak have both missed a match this season as a result of an accumulation of yellow cards. Thankfully the pair missed separate matches with Manning ruled out of Preston North End (A) and Bednerak missed the visit of West Bromwich Albion at St Mary’s.
Five yellows will result in a one game suspension as it stands, going into the clash with Coventry City, four players are just one booking away from this; Adam Armstrong, Shea Charles, Flynn Downes & Will Smallbone. Theoretically four first team players could be ruled out of Saturday’s clash with Blackburn Rovers. How could this affect Southampton?
An Adam Armstrong suspension would probably raise most alarm bells from a fan’s perspective. He’s top scorer with 12 goals in 20 matches as well as being Southampton’s top assister with 5. Undoubtedly he has been crucial this campaign and would be sorely missed particularly against a Blackburn side that are the fifth highest scoring team in the Championship with 34 goals this season.
For reference Southampton have scored 32.
After Armstrong the next highest scorer is Adams (4) who has only netted once since August. The Scot is the natural striker replacement should a suspension occur however with the absence of Kamaldeen Sulemana due to injury, Adams has started the last two games so another alternative would be needed somewhere else in attack.
In terms of a cohesive attacking system RM seemingly has two go to set ups. The standard front three that had great success with Kamaldeen keeping wide left dribbling at defenders while the central and right sided attackers - often Armstrong & Alcaraz - had the freedom to roam allowing KWP to advance forward into the right channel. The other set up featured two central strikers (Armstrong & Adams) with Charly Alcaraz operating as an archetypal ‘No. 10’ behind them.
Would RM persevere with two strikers? Utilising Mara alongside Adams. This would feel unlikely as that would leave no natural striker option on the bench. Reverting to the front three could prove the most optimal approach for a one off game. Adams central, Alcaraz drifting in from the right, leaving the wide left slot available for an Edozie or Fraser type.
As a singular absentee Armstrong would seemingly have the greatest impact however with the other three players at risk being central midfielders this will pose a completely different selection dilemma.
The Downes-Smallbone axis has been a key feature of Southampton’s success in their unbeaten run. The absence of both noticeable against Watford. A stubbornness was missing in the middle of the park. RM has made some rather abstract midfield selections at times this season however when these two and Charles aren’t available there’s a distinct lack of a defensive midfield option.
A midfield of Aribo, Alcaraz & Stu Armstrong would be great to watch however possibly not the most defensively sound. It will be interesting to see the minutes given to these three midfield players in the Coventry match should there be a conscious effort to afford a crippling suspension hit.
Southampton rank second in the division for yellow cards, 53. Working out at 2.65 bookings per match the likelihood is someone will be booked against Coventry. It’s hardly that Southampton are an overly ‘dirty’ side. They only commit 10.1 fouls per 90, which ranks 16th out of the 24. Seemingly, in midfield particular, the success rate of their tackles lends to volume of yellow cards. Downes: 60%, Smallbone: 62.5% & Charles: 47.6%, bizarrely Stu Armstrong - a traditionally more advanced midfield player - has the best tackle success rate out of the midfield contingent at 68.8%.
A couple of clumsy tackles tonight against Coventry could cause some serious selection headaches. Hopefully post match this article is sheer conjecture and not forward planning for a quartet of suspensions.
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