Have Southampton forgotten how to win ugly?

 

Southampton have now succumbed to 3 defeats in their last 4 games including losing the last 2 at St Mary’s. As it stands that’s 4 home defeats this campaign, already surpassing the 11/12 Championship total whereby Saints lost just 3 home league matches all season.

On the back of a 25 game unbeaten run Saints are hitting a spell of poor form at a really unfortunate time of the season. The start of that run was built on being hard to beat, grinding out narrow wins whereas now Southampton look unable to win unless they’re firing on all cylinders. 

Taking a look at the start of the unbeaten sequence, the first 13 games Southampton secured victory 5 times by a single goal margin and drew on 5 occasions. In contrast the final 12 games of the run saw just 2 single goal wins (QPR & Plymouth) and 2 draws. The other 8 games in the waning days of the sequence saw Southampton blow teams away. Thrice winning 4-0 and impressively battering Swansea 5-0 on Boxing Day.

As the run went on Southampton became a winning machine, ruthlessly dispatching any teams they faced. In doing so did they lose some nous, some resilience perhaps? Have they lost the ability to win/compete ugly?

The use of ugly is not to suggest Saints should adopt a totally different approach but certainly the finer details need to be right, from both players on the pitch and the management.

The premise behind Martin’s intense fixation on plan A is that if plan A is executed correctly there shouldn’t need to be a plan B. He’s not wrong. Southampton seldom changed shape or structure during the unbeaten run with personnel changes rather than tactical shifts.

Recently there’s been an element of square peg/round hole with team selection. Downes recurring absence has resulted in no natural no. 6 this despite having Charles available, who most fans would associate with this role. Furthermore against Millwalll, Stephens/THB filled in as an auxiliary full back at differing points in the match, causing KWP to be shifted from his preferred position.  

Unfortunately these selections are somewhat reminiscent of team choices during the subpar September in which a midfield of Smallbone, Aribo & Adam Armstrong took to the field against Ipswich meanwhile a centre back pairing of Charles & THB started that same match having also done so a few days earlier against Leicester.

With regard to finer details on the pitch, Southampton are generating chances however these are just not being taken as the moment. Without singling out one player too much, at 0-0 against Hull Rothwell spurned an excellent opportunity while 1v1 with the keeper before again wasting an effort Saturday as his shot from Armstrong’s lay off tamely went into the hands of the keeper. When you consider the Bournemouth loanee scored a piledriver earlier in February it’s surprising these two opportunities passed him by.

It’s not just Rothwell though. Adam Armstrong hasn’t scored in open play since Rotherham (A) start of the month. The previously prolific striker struggling at the moment.

Having gone from being a ruthless machine to struggling to get the cylinders running Saints seemingly just need a win by any means. We’ve all enjoyed the fluidity of the football recently but there’s something to be said for a result like those at Stoke or QPR. Set piece goals taking all three points in a tight nervy encounter. A result to remind the fans and more importantly the players that they’re still able to win ugly.

Wouldn’t it be lovely to beat Liverpool with a last minute Stu Armstrong free kick!

Is it too simple to blame Downes’ absence for 6 goals in 2 games?

 

Flynn Downes was substituted in the 33rd minute against Huddersfield and since then Southampton have conceded 6 goals in the 1.5ish matches without him. 

Before diving too deep into the titular question I am aware Southampton are a far better side with Downes in the XI this article simply serves to identify whether his specific absence is the cause of the leaky nature of the last two games. 

Let’s take a look at the goals.

Goal 1 - Sorba Thomas 

Lots of Saints fans online shared their admiration for Huddersfield’s performance - particularly in the first half - against Southampton citing their Terriers aggressive press as impressive. Yet, none of their three goals came as a direct result of this. 

Two quick fire switches of play resulted in the first goal. Looking at the images above Sorba Thomas, who would eventually score, originally plays a cross field pass from one touch line to the other and one pass later the ball was switched again from left to right for Thomas to smash home. 

Southampton’s rest defence focuses on maintaining distances between players not allowing obvious central gaps for attackers. As the ball was rapidly switched the back line did maintain their distances amongst themselves however this left a big space on the outside of Manning that Thomas was able to utilise.

Space outside of the fullback is not a new problem for Saints but I’d say it doesn’t fall under Downes remit necessarily. 

Other factors 1-0 Downes would’ve fixed it

Goal 2 - David Kasumu

This was an old school goal. Lump it to the target man, win the flick on, claim the second ball & drive towards the goal. Classic Championship.

Looking at the image above the positioning of the three central midfielders; Armstrong, Rothwell and Smallbone, is concerning. All 3 are dragged towards the ball leaving no anchor in front of the midfield. Downes has been a master of anchoring the midfield this season you’d expect he may have read the situation different and dropped accordingly to support the defence 

Other factors 1-1 Downes would’ve fixed it

Goal 3 - Alex Matos

Easily the most unfortunate goal conceded in the last two games. This goal posted a xG of 0.02 even less than Rothwell’s stunner (0.05) highlighting how unlucky this goal was.

At the time of the shot being taken by Matos he was adequately covered with no option other than to take a pot shot. Had Downes had been there would it have been different? Possibly not given how ludicrous the goal was

Other factors 2-1 Downes would’ve sorted it

Goal 4 - Sam Bell

The crossbar denied Edozie from opening the scoring, mere millimetres stood between Brooks and his first Southampton goal. To further emphasise the importance of fine margins in football a slightly mistimed interception from Smallbone allowed Mehmeti in behind the defence to cross for Bell to open the scoring.

The goal originates from a Bristol City throw in deep down Southampton’s left side, Manning is beaten by Mehmeti before the unfortunate touch from Smallbone. Potentially you can look at space outside the fullback again however given proximity to the touch line probably not. It’s hard to decide if Downes prescience would’ve had any impact for this goal but we’ll chalk it up as an other factor.

Other factors 3-1 Downes would’ve fixed it

Goal 5 - Rob Dickie

Southampton have rarely conceded from set pieces this season, sadly against the Robins we did. A really apathetic defence of the box allowed Bristol City defender Rob Dickie to out jump Will Smallbone to head in from close range.

Ability to win aerial duels are not a quality Southamptons midfield possesses. Flynn Downes has won 28.8% of his aerial duels with his midfield counterpart Smallbone winning even less, 22.2%. Shea Charles leads the midfielders with 42.9%, certainly a concern that none of the more defensive minded midfield’s average winning 50% aerial duels.

Statistically you can argue Downes would’ve been better suited to defend the set piece than Smallbone so we’ll chuck this one in the Downes column, dubiously.

Other factors 3-2 Downes would’ve fixed it

Goal 6 - Harry Cornick

Let’s take a look at the image below. It’s the final one I promise.

Firstly let’s consider the gamestate, Southampton we’re desperately seeking a goal and had effectively gone 4-2-4 with Kamaldeen, Mara, Armstrong & Fraser all on the pitch. As the ball is turned over 6 Saints players are in front of the ball leaving the defence massively exposed. One pass down the right channel given Ross McCrorie acres of space to pick out Cornick to sweep home and rubber stamp the end of the unbeaten run.

A goal scored in transition. These moments happen to be when Downes is at his best defensively, breaking up counter attacks. Although given the already mentioned game state it’s unlikely Downes would’ve been on the pitch at this point as Saints pushed for a way back in.

Given we’ve covered six goals in this piece I’ll be generous and chalk this one up as a potential point for both categories.

Full time 4-3, in favour of other factors. A one ‘point’ margin though suggests maybe it’s not too simple to suggest the absence of Downes resulted in the leaky defence. Out of 6 goals conceded there’s solid arguments that Flynn could’ve offered a defensive solution to problems. A further talking point that isn’t necessarily obvious with each goal is the frequency to which Smallbone’s name popped up. Not in an overly detrimental way towards the Irish midfielder but the game and a half have highlighted the drop off in the no. 6 position within the squad.