Flynn Downes was substituted in the 33rd minute against Huddersfield and since then Southampton have conceded 6 goals in the 1.5ish matches without him.
Before diving too deep into the titular question I am aware Southampton are a far better side with Downes in the XI this article simply serves to identify whether his specific absence is the cause of the leaky nature of the last two games.
Let’s take a look at the goals.
Goal 1 - Sorba Thomas
Lots of Saints fans online shared their admiration for Huddersfield’s performance - particularly in the first half - against Southampton citing their Terriers aggressive press as impressive. Yet, none of their three goals came as a direct result of this.
Two quick fire switches of play resulted in the first goal. Looking at the images above Sorba Thomas, who would eventually score, originally plays a cross field pass from one touch line to the other and one pass later the ball was switched again from left to right for Thomas to smash home.
Southampton’s rest defence focuses on maintaining distances between players not allowing obvious central gaps for attackers. As the ball was rapidly switched the back line did maintain their distances amongst themselves however this left a big space on the outside of Manning that Thomas was able to utilise.
Space outside of the fullback is not a new problem for Saints but I’d say it doesn’t fall under Downes remit necessarily.
Other factors 1-0 Downes would’ve fixed it
Goal 2 - David Kasumu
This was an old school goal. Lump it to the target man, win the flick on, claim the second ball & drive towards the goal. Classic Championship.
Looking at the image above the positioning of the three central midfielders; Armstrong, Rothwell and Smallbone, is concerning. All 3 are dragged towards the ball leaving no anchor in front of the midfield. Downes has been a master of anchoring the midfield this season you’d expect he may have read the situation different and dropped accordingly to support the defence
Other factors 1-1 Downes would’ve fixed it
Goal 3 - Alex Matos
Easily the most unfortunate goal conceded in the last two games. This goal posted a xG of 0.02 even less than Rothwell’s stunner (0.05) highlighting how unlucky this goal was.
At the time of the shot being taken by Matos he was adequately covered with no option other than to take a pot shot. Had Downes had been there would it have been different? Possibly not given how ludicrous the goal was
Other factors 2-1 Downes would’ve sorted it
Goal 4 - Sam Bell
The crossbar denied Edozie from opening the scoring, mere millimetres stood between Brooks and his first Southampton goal. To further emphasise the importance of fine margins in football a slightly mistimed interception from Smallbone allowed Mehmeti in behind the defence to cross for Bell to open the scoring.
The goal originates from a Bristol City throw in deep down Southampton’s left side, Manning is beaten by Mehmeti before the unfortunate touch from Smallbone. Potentially you can look at space outside the fullback again however given proximity to the touch line probably not. It’s hard to decide if Downes prescience would’ve had any impact for this goal but we’ll chalk it up as an other factor.
Other factors 3-1 Downes would’ve fixed it
Goal 5 - Rob Dickie
Southampton have rarely conceded from set pieces this season, sadly against the Robins we did. A really apathetic defence of the box allowed Bristol City defender Rob Dickie to out jump Will Smallbone to head in from close range.
Ability to win aerial duels are not a quality Southamptons midfield possesses. Flynn Downes has won 28.8% of his aerial duels with his midfield counterpart Smallbone winning even less, 22.2%. Shea Charles leads the midfielders with 42.9%, certainly a concern that none of the more defensive minded midfield’s average winning 50% aerial duels.
Statistically you can argue Downes would’ve been better suited to defend the set piece than Smallbone so we’ll chuck this one in the Downes column, dubiously.
Other factors 3-2 Downes would’ve fixed it
Goal 6 - Harry Cornick
Let’s take a look at the image below. It’s the final one I promise.
Firstly let’s consider the gamestate, Southampton we’re desperately seeking a goal and had effectively gone 4-2-4 with Kamaldeen, Mara, Armstrong & Fraser all on the pitch. As the ball is turned over 6 Saints players are in front of the ball leaving the defence massively exposed. One pass down the right channel given Ross McCrorie acres of space to pick out Cornick to sweep home and rubber stamp the end of the unbeaten run.
A goal scored in transition. These moments happen to be when Downes is at his best defensively, breaking up counter attacks. Although given the already mentioned game state it’s unlikely Downes would’ve been on the pitch at this point as Saints pushed for a way back in.
Given we’ve covered six goals in this piece I’ll be generous and chalk this one up as a potential point for both categories.
Full time 4-3, in favour of other factors. A one ‘point’ margin though suggests maybe it’s not too simple to suggest the absence of Downes resulted in the leaky defence. Out of 6 goals conceded there’s solid arguments that Flynn could’ve offered a defensive solution to problems. A further talking point that isn’t necessarily obvious with each goal is the frequency to which Smallbone’s name popped up. Not in an overly detrimental way towards the Irish midfielder but the game and a half have highlighted the drop off in the no. 6 position within the squad.
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