Has the lack of Carabao Cup action been beneficial to Southampton?

 

Last season was awful. Arguably the only bright spark was the Carabao Cup run. Semi finalists and an exceptional victory over the soon to be treble winners Manchester City. A win so incredible it earned the now unemployed Nathan Jones a Coaching Masterclass video on YouTube.

Success in the competition this season however was none existent. Saints fans were treated to an extra round, having not featured in the First Round since 2011, unfortunately the campaign went no further as Southampton lost 3-1 at League Two Gillingham.

Has this actually been a blessing in disguise? Given the frequent Saturday/Tuesday nature of the Championship, has the absence of a domestic cup competition been beneficial to Southampton?

Saints fell at the first hurdle on August 9th, the Second Round was played W/C 28th August. Southampton were unbeaten in their first four league games with a trip to Sunderland to come. The lack of a midweek match should have allowed Southampton the chance to cope with the final week of the transfer window and fully prepare themselves for the longest away trip of the season.

Southampton went on to be battered 5-0 at the Stadium of Light.

In reality there’s no connection between the Carabao Cup exit and the heavy defeat. There were far more mitigating factors that led to this loss; the uncertainty caused by the transfer window closing, conceding inside one minute, Jack Stephens injury combined with Taylor Harwood-Bellis not ready to make his debut & who could forget Flynn Downes still recovering from food poisoning.

With regard to this gameweek you can’t really answer the titular question however when you take a look at the 3rd round the importance of free time for the Saints really comes into play.

Matches in the 3rd round took place W/C 25th September. After 3 defeats in an 8 day period - Leicester, Ipswich & Middlesbrough - Southampton found themselves with a free midweek before a daunting home clash with Leeds United on the horizon.

Southampton went on to beat Leeds 3-1.

This is where Southampton’s absence from this competition begins to have a positive impact. Against Leeds Russell Martin would, for the first time in the season, start Kamaldeen, A. Armstrong & Alcaraz implementing an asymmetrical attacking system that allowed Kamaldeen to stay wide left while KWP marauded down the right as Armstrong cut in. This tactical switch by RM was too much for Leeds and demonstrated an adaptability to his managerial style. The free time after the Middlesbrough defeat certainly helped Southampton settle down and find their levels.

This victory over Leeds kickstarted Southampton’s upturn in form and by the time the Fourth Round rolled around (W/C 30th October) Saints were 6 unbeaten. A trip to Millwall to come.

There’s a school of thought that when you’re winning you just want the games to keep coming, to carry on the hot streak. The Championship schedule provides the quick fire nature of fixtures anyway without adding extras to the calendar. Prior to the W/C 30th October Southampton had played a 3 game week securing 7/9 points available. A rest was needed.

Southampton beat Millwall 1-0. Again utilising the free midweek and continuing the unbeaten run.

This week sees the competition reach the Quarter Final stage. Would Saints have even made it this far? Who knows. However it does fall at a critical point in the Championship calendar so let’s take a look anyway.

The only Championship team remaining is Middlesbrough, ironically they came through the bracket via a route Southampton were eliminated from. I’ll show my working to clarify this.

Gillingham beat Southampton, Luton beat Gillingham, Exeter beat Luton & Middlesbrough beat Exeter. A tenuous link nevertheless in some parallel universe Southampton are the side in the Quarter finals. 

With an upcoming hectic festive period of fixtures - 4 games in 10 days - a domestic cup Quarter Final would be a truly unnecessary distraction. Southampton are no longer a Premier League side able to view this competition as a chance of silverware, instead the league has to be priority number one. A full week between Blackburn and QPR matches should be perfect for rest/recovery.

At the time the defeat to Gillingham was tough to take given the respective divisions, ultimately it was a defeat that would always need hindsight to make sense of it. Aside from a horror show against Sunderland the other ‘free weeks’ in the calendar have led to victories. Another win at QPR this Saturday would help this narrative.

Watch out for the yellows against the Sky Blues

 

Southampton are no strangers to discipline related suspensions this season. Ryan Manning & Jan Bednerak have both missed a match this season as a result of an accumulation of yellow cards. Thankfully the pair missed separate matches with Manning ruled out of Preston North End (A) and Bednerak missed the visit of West Bromwich Albion at St Mary’s. 

Five yellows will result in a one game suspension as it stands, going into the clash with Coventry City, four players are just one booking away from this; Adam Armstrong, Shea Charles, Flynn Downes & Will Smallbone. Theoretically four first team players could be ruled out of Saturday’s clash with Blackburn Rovers. How could this affect Southampton?

An Adam Armstrong suspension would probably raise most alarm bells from a fan’s perspective. He’s top scorer with 12 goals in 20 matches as well as being Southampton’s top assister with 5. Undoubtedly he has been crucial this campaign and would be sorely missed particularly against a Blackburn side that are the fifth highest scoring team in the Championship with 34 goals this season. 

For reference Southampton have scored 32.

After Armstrong the next highest scorer is Adams (4) who has only netted once since August. The Scot is the natural striker replacement should a suspension occur however with the absence of Kamaldeen Sulemana due to injury, Adams has started the last two games so another alternative would be needed somewhere else in attack. 

In terms of a cohesive attacking system RM seemingly has two go to set ups. The standard front three that had great success with Kamaldeen keeping wide left dribbling at defenders while the central and right sided attackers - often Armstrong & Alcaraz - had the freedom to roam allowing KWP to advance forward into the right channel. The other set up featured two central strikers (Armstrong & Adams) with Charly Alcaraz operating as an archetypal ‘No. 10’ behind them.

Would RM persevere with two strikers? Utilising Mara alongside Adams. This would feel unlikely as that would leave no natural striker option on the bench. Reverting to the front three could prove the most optimal approach for a one off game. Adams central, Alcaraz drifting in from the right, leaving the wide left slot available for an Edozie or Fraser type.

As a singular absentee Armstrong would seemingly have the greatest impact however with the other three players at risk being central midfielders this will pose a completely different selection dilemma.

The Downes-Smallbone axis has been a key feature of Southampton’s success in their unbeaten run. The absence of both noticeable against Watford. A stubbornness was missing in the middle of the park. RM has made some rather abstract midfield selections at times this season however when these two and Charles aren’t available there’s a distinct lack of a defensive midfield option.  

A midfield of Aribo, Alcaraz & Stu Armstrong would be great to watch however possibly not the most defensively sound. It will be interesting to see the minutes given to these three midfield players in the Coventry match should there be a conscious effort to afford a crippling suspension hit.

Southampton rank second in the division for yellow cards, 53. Working out at 2.65 bookings per match the likelihood is someone will be booked against Coventry. It’s hardly that Southampton are an overly ‘dirty’ side. They only commit 10.1 fouls per 90, which ranks 16th out of the 24. Seemingly, in midfield particular, the success rate of their tackles lends to volume of yellow cards. Downes: 60%, Smallbone: 62.5% & Charles: 47.6%, bizarrely Stu Armstrong - a traditionally more advanced midfield player - has the best tackle success rate out of the midfield contingent at 68.8%.

A couple of clumsy tackles tonight against Coventry could cause some serious selection headaches. Hopefully post match this article is sheer conjecture and not forward planning for a quartet of suspensions.

Is there such a thing as too much possession?

 

Southampton have had over 75% possession in three games this season and only won one of those - away to Sheffield Wednesday. The other two matches both ending 1-1. Rotherham at St Mary’s and most recently Huddersfield away. 

When bordering on total dominance of the football, why is it Southampton can’t seem to get over the line? Is there a thing as too much possession?

Let’s take a look.

Post match Russell Martin said “It's really similar to the Rotherham game so maybe the players felt this is nice, but it is never easy. Our mentality has cost us two points.” In both matches Southampton dominated the shot count as well as ball possession. Mustering 12 shots in the first half against both sides. In contrast Rotherham and Huddersfield managed 1 shot each in the first half of their respective games. Despite the shot dominance Southampton only scored once in the first half of both games failing to turn the screw and be ruthless. That feeling of “nice” on the pitch causing complacency and that’s the mentality RM refers to. Sadly it’s becoming an all too familiar story this season.

Southampton have only secured a two goal lead twice this season, Leeds and Birmingham. Unsurprisingly these are two of the more convincing wins this season. Arguably making it more frustrating that Southampton are able to turn the screw against a team of Leeds quality but have struggled against supposed lesser sides. Returning to the ideas of complacency setting in.

The above shows the momentum graph vs Huddersfield. These graphs are not only good for checking when to cash out on your bets, they also provide an accurate reflection of the game state. As seen the blue is hardly present in the first half yet the second shows sustain periods of Huddersfield momentum. A visual aid highlighting Saints lack of ruthlessness.

Let’s park the mentality element briefly. Southampton have won 7 games by a single goal margin, which in itself takes a certain type of mentality. So what else could have caused these two draws? When Southampton were so ball dominant on both occasions.

The short answer is Saints, frustratingly,  concede from low quality chances. The equalising goals in both instances were not neatly carved out chances. One was a lob from 25 yards out and the other was an in-swinging cross that evaded everyone before nestling into the far side netting. Both shots generated a xG of 0.01.

In laymen’s terms these chances are scored once in every 100 efforts. 

Not to get all ‘OPTA Analyst’ on everyone but xG value represents the likelihood of the ball going in at the moment the shot is taken so it doesn’t account for the accuracy of the shot itself. On the other hand xGOT (expected goals on target) refers to the likelihood of a goal given the original effort was in fact on target. I emphasise the difference primarily to provide a different value more reflective on the quality of the goals conceded by Saints. Ben Jackson’s goal generated a xGOT of 0.58, considering Adam Armstrong’s opener posted 0.93 xGOT it was a relatively low quality chance for Huddersfield.

The real damming implementation of this metric is Jordan Hugil’s lob. An xGOT of 0.11 meaning even with the effort being on target the likelihood of a goal was 1 in 10. 

Low quality chances or fluke goals are scored frequently throughout the Football League. Therefore it’s inevitable that at some point Saints will be on the receiving end of one. Although if you’re only leading by one goal the margin for error is smaller, you cannot afford to conceded silly goals.

Succumbing to these type of chances wouldn’t be an issue had Saints been more ruthless in their approach. After Adam Armstrong the next highest scoring forward is Che Adams (3) who hasn’t scored since August. Forward players need to start contributing more with goals to help establish a cutting edge.

The possession number is the statistic that stands out however I don’t think it’s a case of ‘too much.’ Simply put Southampton are not clinical enough throughout matches. The chances, as shown by the shot counts, are there the issue is taking them. Having rickety moments doesn’t help either but if you can establish a substantial lead it doesn’t matter

The Hidden International Break

 

An international break - again. The third so far this season. Thankfully, now this one is over the action is non-stop until the middle of March. That doesn’t mean there isn’t international football taking place. Two inter-continental championships take place in January but the English domestic game carries on. Sides such as Southampton will need to adapt accordingly.

These competitions are the AFC Asian Cup & the African Cup of Nations (AFCON) with the latter having an impact on Southampton.

Joe Aribo and Kamaldeen Sulemana were both called up by their respective nations (Nigeria & Ghana) for this international break for World Cup 2026 qualifiers, these are the last squads before the tournament in the new year. Barring any injuries these two should make the cut. 

After originally being selected, Kamaldeen did withdraw from the Ghana squad for their qualifies against Madagascar and Comoros. I imagine he may not pull out of the final AFCON squad.

AFCON takes place from January 13th to February 11th in this period Southampton face; Sheffield Wednesday (H), Swansea (A), Hull City (H) or a potential FA Cup 4th round match however given the Carabao Cup attempt this season let’s stick with the assumption it’ll be Hull, Rotherham (A) and Huddersfield (H). Bristol City (A) only is two days after the AFCON final so should Ghana/Nigeria be involved in this then this game is also a right off. 

That’s potentially six games without two first team players. This begs two questions; will Saints miss them? and what are the alternatives?

Kamaldeen has featured in all 11 games since overcoming his early season injury. In Southampton’s unbeaten 8 game run Kamaldeen has started all but one (Preston) continuously causing nightmares for defenders. With 3 assists and no goals Kamaldeen, statistically, isn’t setting the Championship alight however he certainly passes the ‘eye test.’ There’s a palpable sense of excitement amongst Southampton fans and fear from the opposition when he gets the ball. The Ghanaian international averages 5.1 successful dribbles per 90 the most of any Southampton player. A nice metric to reinforce the notion that Kamaldeen gets fans out of their seats as he takes the game to opponents.

Undoubtedly he’ll be missed.

In contrast Aribo, as it stands, will be a less noticeable absentee. Managing just 147 minutes this season across 11 matches culminating in zero goal contributions. In fairness to Aribo he has only featured in dribs and drabs, only one start in an underwhelming team performance against Ipswich. The lack of goal return is unsurprising. With 4 big chances created in these 147 minutes Aribo theoretically creates a chances every 37 minutes oddly this is a better rate than Kamaldeen - generating a chance every 61 minutes - granted Aribo’s sample size is much smaller. The small sample size though does suggest that as an option of the bench Aribo is capable of helping the team create goalscoring opportunities.

Undoubtedly he won’t be missed as much as Kamaldeen however for the Championship Aribo is an adequate squad player.

With regard to the alternatives Southampton will need to replace the wide left forward and an attacking option off the bench. The former is the easier place to start. 

A common tactical switch throughout games this season has been the introduction of Ryan Fraser as a substitute. The Scot has goal involvements in each of the last five matches coming off the bench. He would be the obvious beneficiary in Kamaldeen’s absence. Although let’s not discount Samuel Edozie who impressed in the early matches of the season however the youngster lacks a little defensive solidity that Fraser provides - I.e Preston’s second goal. Alternatively Alcaraz is often deployed in wide roles, the prospect of a front three of Charly, Stewart & Adam Armstrong is mouthwatering.

Replacing Kamaldeen is a starting XI issue whereas replacing Aribo is more of a seating plan dilemma for the subs bench. Perhaps Kamari Doyle may benefit from the available seat, Doyle the most obvious like for like replacement of the youngsters at RM’s disposal. In reality the Aribo conundrum is not really a priority but fun to speculate nevertheless.

If a 46 game season doesn’t provide enough selection dilemmas with the Saturday/Tuesday turnarounds then the departure of two first team players in January will certainly add another complexity for RM to mull over. A problem not in the immediate future thankfully.

Adam Armstrong, Southampton’s goal machine

 

“He stands a total 5’7, Adam, Adam

He’ll take us to the Premier League Adam, Adam

He strikes the ball so sweetly

He wears the shirt of James Beattie 

Adam Armstrong Southampton’s goal machine”

A homage to the great Rickie Lambert’s chant. The big man fulfilled the prophecy of the song in 2012 as Saints reached the Premier League. This time around it’s our little man leading the charge back to the top flight - note the use of little not wee, Fraser’s already had his article.

Adam Armstrong truly is captain fantastic with 9 goals in 16 games, the Championship’s second top scorer. All of these goals have come from inside the penalty area however there’s variety to his finishing. 

Let’s take a look.

Goal 1 - Sheffield Wednesday (A)

Easily the most fortuitous of the lot. The lightest of deflections on Nathan Tella’s shot enough to take it past Dawson in the Wednesday goal. Pleased he got off the mark in the opening fixture of the campaign but you can’t say too much about this one.

Armstrong’s only headed goal of the season. Unsurprisingly.

Goals 2 & 3 - Norwich City (H)

For a long time set pieces whether they were from the edge of the pitch, outside the penalty area or inside you know who was taking them. JWP. Sadly he’s gone and the first game after his departure fans got an answer to a burning question; Who’s on penalty duty? 

The answer being Adam Armstrong. Twice striking past former Saint Angus Gunn. Converting one penalty in a match is tough enough, to convert two is a whole different level of mental strength. Armstrong has started off perfectly as penalty taker for the Saints. 

Watch him miss the next one.

Goal 4 & 8 - QPR & Birmingham City (H)

A break to the chronological flow but both these were archetypal poachers finishes. Half volleys struck low and hard. One scored in front of the Chapel Stand to seal a first home win since March meanwhile the other scored in front of the Brummies in the Northam Stand dampening their hopes of a comeback. 

Seven out of nine of Armstrong’s goals have been scored at St Mary’s. Home form is crucial in sustaining a promotion push, whenever he scores at St Mary’s we don’t lose - so far.

Goals 5,6 & 7 - Middlesbrough (A) & Leeds (H)

It’s rare in the Championship for Southampton to have space in behind opposition due to the frequency to which low blocks are utilised however Boro and Leeds are two of the more progressive sides. Armstrong punished the space with excellent movement.

In both these matches he had been deployed from the right with Che (Boro) or Alcaraz (Leeds) playing centrally. As a result of the fluidity of the front line Armstrong found himself beyond the supposed central striker. Against Boro his diagonal run across the penalty area saw him strike from centre-left of the box whereas a shallower run against Leeds saw him twice from almost identical positions in the inside right channel. Two very different runs but three top finishes.

Goal 9 - West Brom (H)

Confident & clinical. Last season Armstrong would’ve swung at it first time and ultimately missed but now he’s fully found his groove. The ability to take such a good first touch before slotting it home highlights his improvement this season. Another moment Armstrong has come up clutch for the Saints.

That’s the lot. That’s the nine. Split into five relatively different sub-categories. Each - with the exception of the first - demonstrating qualities of Armstrong’s game. Arguably the most exciting thing about Armstrong’s form this season is, and I say this with the greatest of respect, he hasn’t been phenomenal in a game yet. Aside from the opening 45 minutes against Leeds there hasn’t been a match that he has noticeably dominated in its entirety. Armstrong is like pre-Infinity War Thanos, casually acquiring goals - or ‘Infinity Stones’ - preparing himself for the next third of this season. Something internally will snap, if you pardon the pun, we could truly have a monster on our hands. 

The previously mentioned Rickie Lambert amassed 27 goals in 42 games in the last promotion season, a rate of 0.64 goals per game. Armstrong’s rate currently stands at 0.52 not too far behind the Southampton legend. If he were able to survive the full season fitness wise we could see 25 goals this season. That’d certainly do nicely.