Absence explainer - an open letter

 

Hi all!

The last blog, dated April 22nd, was originally intended as the middle entry in a trilogy that discussed how to beat the three teams situated above Southampton in the Championship. Having lost in the dying seconds to Ipswich and been thoroughly embarrassed by Leicester it felt that the universe wasn’t a fan of this literary idea. 

This thought process, while utterly nonsensical, was proved right. Saints beat Leeds 2-1 at Elland Road. 

Familiar readers and frequent listeners to In That Number podcast will know I am a highly superstitious individual when it comes to football particularly Southampton. For example, this Championship campaign whenever Southampton wore their Black/Gold third strip I would wear the Black/Red third shirt from 2021/22. The only game I didn’t; Sunderland away! Need I say more.

Anyway back to the writing or more pertinently back to the lack of writing, this stemmed from a sign of the universe. A ludicrous notion that activity on In The Channel webpages had any bearing on Saints results. Yet, here we are back in the Premier League and with the season over In The Channel can go again. Unburdened by the prospect of jeopardising the seasons climax.

With mainstream outlets sniff around St Mary’s again let’s not forget those who wrote about Andreas Georgson talking to substitutes at Plymouth and analysed 6% of Huddersfield Town’s total league goals to figure out if a lack of Flynn Downes in the side was the reason for a slump.

Thank you to anyone that’s read anything from this season.

 

ITC

How to Beat ….. 2

 

Welcome back! 

Leicester (A) is the second in the trilogy of tough games against the top three. Here’s hoping ITC’s second instalment in the How to beat … series is more “Empire Strikes Back” than “The Last Jedi.”

Sadly, a quick debrief of Ipswich is needed. FT 3-2, one of the best performances for the first 60 minutes, alas football matches last roughly 90. Specifically they last 97 minutes in Suffolk. Knowledge can be a great burden and having discussed avoiding late goals in part one of this series seeing Sarmiento’s toe poke was truly demoralising. The most surprising deviation from ITC’s pre match suggestions was the exclusion of KWP from the lineup. Not in keeping with the cohesive defence narrative although Bree had a decent game up until his 85th minute red card. A sending off that seemed to be unjust as surely THB was on the cover - a hill I’m prepared to die on.

Anyway, onwards and  upwards. Southampton had miraculously got themselves back in the conversation for automatic promotion however Saturdays defeat in Wales has all but squashed that dream. Now automatic promotion is dependent on one of the top three falling off a cliff form-wise, the dream isn’t over but even winning the final three games may not prove enough anymore. Going forward the mindset has to be entering the playoff schedule in the best form possible. Starting with a win at Leicester.

A tight encounter

Ipswich (A) was the meeting of the two highest scoring teams in the Championship. It felt inevitable that is was going to be end to end like a basketball match whereas this is match feels more comparable to Test Cricket. A war of attrition between Maresca and RM as the sides who top the possession chart meet at the King Power on Tuesday night. Southampton’s devilishly attractive footballl generating 66.6% possession compared to Leicester’s measily 62.7%.

The overarching feeling is this game will be cagey and tight with little margin for error. Leicester have lost 10 matches this season, 8 of which by a single goal margin. It’s is unlikely Southampton will blow them away, undoubtedly hard graft will be required to see this one over the line. Out of these 8 particular losses, 6 have been by a 1-0 score line. Keeping a clean sheet obviously increases chance of victory but against a side like Leicester this will be crucial to any success. The worrying statistic though is just 2 clean sheet out of the last 11 league games for Saints. These coming against hapless Blackburn & Preston neither possess the firepower of the Foxes. 

With Macca back between the sticks the goalkeeper performance will need to be similar to his heroics at Swansea in 2018 as his clutch performance helped Southampton secure a memorable 0-1 victory. Ultimately, let’s try survive longer than 12 seconds before conceding this time and take the game from there.

Back on the theme of tight and cagey football, it would not be unsurprising to see Jack Stephens start in his hybrid wide defender / midfielder role. RM has employed this strategy away to Ipswich & West Brom in an attempt to gain more control centrally in matches. Control is one thing, seeing out a 1-0 win is a different beast entirely. A beast Southampton haven’t conquered since QPR on 23rd December.

Exploiting the high line 

Picture time now. The below is a still image in the build up to Finn Azaz’s opener for Middlesbrough as they beat Leicester 1-2 back in February. It’s useful in identifying an area Southampton could exploit as an avenue to goal. 

Leicester hold a very high defensive line but their defenders aren’t the quickest - we’ve all seen Vestergaard in a sprint before. Lewis O’Brien makes an underlapping run and due to the positioning of Leicester’s back line he has acres of space to carry the ball into before squaring across to Azaz.

What’s noteworthy here is that this isn’t a one off occurrence. Further examples can be seen against QPR and Bristol City.

Build up to Ilias Chair’s goal. 1-2 QPR win

Build up for a Bristol City attack that could - probably should - have resulted in a penalty

Not both are underlapping specifically but both are penetrative runs beyond Leicester’s defence. Southampton posses a plethora of wide players capable of making these types of runs such as Fraser, Kamaldeen et al but arguably the best at these specific underlapping runs is Stu Armstrong who is now out for the remainder of the season. Rothwell perhaps is next best suited being a Central Midfielder whose input is far better driving forward than it defensively. Smallbone and Aribo both have good ball retention qualities but don’t quite have the gut-busting runs in their armoury. Rothwell could prove a wildcard pick for RM.

The big caveat surrounding Saints utilising these sorts of movements is that the sides shown (QPR, Boro & Bristol City) are less possession centric and willing to transition forward quicker whereas, typically, Southampton operate a slower, more methodical build up pattern. Potentially deviating slightly from the RM playbook could prove fruitful Tuesday night. 

Regardless of the state of play in the automatic promotion race beating Leicester has potential to be the perfect catalyst. Either it throws one final cat among the pigeons or it reminds players and supporters that we are capable of bettering one of the top three. As it stands the only win against these teams was Leeds back at the end of September. A win no one saw coming, which given the demoralised fan base after Cardiff is a similar place we find ourselves now.

Hopefully that’s a good omen.

How to Beat ……

 

As listeners of the excellent In That Number podcast will be aware recently the In The Channel family increased its numbers. Another Saints fan added to the world. Unfortunately 2 under 2 years of age doesn’t create a conducive working environment to publish hit after hit that you (the reader) has to come expect from this blog.

Nevertheless as a fan I keep up with the Saints online discourse and recent mumblings regarding the current promotion picture has led me to the premise behind the next series of articles. Automatic promotion spots seem out of reach with Southampton nine points behind the top two yet as every regretful optimist has ever said - “it’s the hope that kills you.”

Hope that a combination of games in hand & crunch trips to the Championship’s top three may swing the promotion pendulum back in Southampton’s favour. The latter the driving force behind this series. Not merely a case of ‘could’ Southampton pull off monumental victories away at Portman Road, King Power Stadium & Elland Road but how does Russell Martin’s side go about this.

Welcome to the “How to Beat ……” series. 

Seems appropriate to cover this remit chronologically so let’s start with Ipswich.

The Tractor Boys are the Championship’s top scorers (80) and have lost just 5 league games this season, the fewest of the top four. To add further jeopardy only one of these defeats was at home - a 3-4 humdinger with Leeds United back in August.

Single goal margins of victory are common for Ipswich amassing 16/24 wins this way. Do not let this knowledge lead you to the assumption that ‘Town’ are defensively solid. Having conceded 49 goals this campaign ranking they rank as the leakiest defence among the current top four. Ipswich’s proficiency in attack combined with relative inefficiency in defence means goals can be expected. Particularly as Saints rank third for goals scored behind Ipswich and Leicester (73.) 

Fear not the analysis in this piece is not simply that Southampton having a prolific attack will help to beat Ipswich. The intricacy here is timing of scoring goals. 

Early goals are crucial

The common commentator adage of teams ‘scoring too early’ may not be applicable against Ipswich. In 4/5 defeats they’ve conceded a goal in the opening 10 minutes.

Leeds 3-4 - Rutter (10)

West Brom 2-0 - Furlong (5)

Leeds (Again) 4-0 - Struijk (8)

Preston 3-2 - Keane (5) & Edmundson OG (8)

Looking at the above graphic Ipswich’s leakiest spell is minutes 0-15. The suggestion here that an early goal for Southampton is key to success in this fixture.

Notably the two 15 minute periods in which Ipswich are in a goal deficit are at the start of both halves implying they typically are slow off the blocks. Saints need to capitalise in these moments and looking (below) at Southampton’s goal scoring timings away from home the 0-15 section has seen 4 goals on their travels.

The graphic shows that Southampton also struggle straight after half time implying that the match could become a “clusterfuck” - to use a technical term - at the start of the second period.

Avoid conceding late

Granted this subheading does put the article at risk of becoming goal centric however two points I’d like to throw out there. Firstly goals win games so there’s that. Secondly Ipswich frequently score late goals. How often have we thought the Tractor Boys might be dropping points only for *insert app of choice* to inform you they’d found a late goal. In fact they’ve found the back of the net 22 times in the final 15 minutes of matches. For those shouting “Russell Martin’s late late show” at their phones Southampton have scored less in this period. Just the 21 for the Saints.

This late goal occurrence offers an interesting tactical footnote on the game. A common stick to beat Martin with is he makes substitutions too early. Using the most recent match against Sunderland as an example, RM brought off Smallbone & Brooks on the 58th minute with Southampton in relative control leading 2-0. Within 15 minutes it was 2-2.

A double substitution so early in the game impacting team cohesion. Granted his choice of substitutions at 2-2 led to restoring the lead and claiming the win. The perk of the high quality bench at his disposal however the game became unnecessarily nervy.

With all due respect to Sunderland, you would imagine Ipswich at home are not going to be dominated in the same manner that the Black Cats were suggesting control in this match will be harder to come by. Thus a lack of continued control might cause RM to delay substitutions in order to allow continuity and cohesiveness to prevail.

Equally completely feasible that RM might go gung-ho at 2-0 down in an attempt to salvage something.

Selection, selection, selection.

For the final point - yes I said final, you’re so close to the end thank you for sticking with this  - let’s cast our minds back to the reverse fixture. I know we’re all super keen to relive that truly awful Tuesday night in September but looking back there’s such easy tweaks from that game to give Saints a better chance this time around.

The big tweak in question is the team selection. Refreshing the memory for you all, below was the Saints starting XI last time around

*Reference - FotMob

A Centre Back pairing of Charles & THB, this their second outing after shipping 4 together against Leicester a few days earlier. Alternatively, THAT midfield might be what catches your eye. Aribo’s first start of the season and he certainly was not the dynamic no. 8 he is now. Adam Armstrong at CM after an impressive showing away to Plymouth whereby Southampton’s number nine bagged 2 assists and seemed to convince us all that he had a potential future in a deeper role. To top it off Smallbone in the no. 6 role, the less said about that the better.

In defence of this selection it was somewhat makeshift for good reason. Stephens was out injured, Bednerak was returning from injury, Holgate was recovering from his shock-a-thon away to Sunderland & Downes hadn’t passed his food safety level 2.

Thankfully as it stands, at time of print, Southampton do not have the same injury worries. Fraser will most likely be out but due to depth in his position it’s less of a catastrophe. The big question mark though would be KWP, interesting to see what his minutes against Middlesbrough look like.

KWP caveat aside Southampton have a much more assured starting lineup than they did back in September. THB & Janny B are one of the best defensive pairings in the league. The Downes & Smallbone axis in midfield is a force to be reckoned with particularly with the delightful accompaniment of Stu Armstrong as the roaming attacking midfielder. 

These six names pick themselves in the starting XI currently. That cohesion - there’s that word again - and quality within the spine of the team will be crucial against Ipswich.

I promised that was the last subheading and it was. Let’s sign off with a conclusion that has the feel of a quick fire buzzer round on a quiz show.

To answer the titular question;

Score early, ideally score first.

Don’t concede late in the game, ideally score a late winner ourselves.

Don’t get too over zealous with substitutions.

Finally please start a reliable defence and an organised, coherent midfield.

That ought to do it! 

Have Southampton forgotten how to win ugly?

 

Southampton have now succumbed to 3 defeats in their last 4 games including losing the last 2 at St Mary’s. As it stands that’s 4 home defeats this campaign, already surpassing the 11/12 Championship total whereby Saints lost just 3 home league matches all season.

On the back of a 25 game unbeaten run Saints are hitting a spell of poor form at a really unfortunate time of the season. The start of that run was built on being hard to beat, grinding out narrow wins whereas now Southampton look unable to win unless they’re firing on all cylinders. 

Taking a look at the start of the unbeaten sequence, the first 13 games Southampton secured victory 5 times by a single goal margin and drew on 5 occasions. In contrast the final 12 games of the run saw just 2 single goal wins (QPR & Plymouth) and 2 draws. The other 8 games in the waning days of the sequence saw Southampton blow teams away. Thrice winning 4-0 and impressively battering Swansea 5-0 on Boxing Day.

As the run went on Southampton became a winning machine, ruthlessly dispatching any teams they faced. In doing so did they lose some nous, some resilience perhaps? Have they lost the ability to win/compete ugly?

The use of ugly is not to suggest Saints should adopt a totally different approach but certainly the finer details need to be right, from both players on the pitch and the management.

The premise behind Martin’s intense fixation on plan A is that if plan A is executed correctly there shouldn’t need to be a plan B. He’s not wrong. Southampton seldom changed shape or structure during the unbeaten run with personnel changes rather than tactical shifts.

Recently there’s been an element of square peg/round hole with team selection. Downes recurring absence has resulted in no natural no. 6 this despite having Charles available, who most fans would associate with this role. Furthermore against Millwalll, Stephens/THB filled in as an auxiliary full back at differing points in the match, causing KWP to be shifted from his preferred position.  

Unfortunately these selections are somewhat reminiscent of team choices during the subpar September in which a midfield of Smallbone, Aribo & Adam Armstrong took to the field against Ipswich meanwhile a centre back pairing of Charles & THB started that same match having also done so a few days earlier against Leicester.

With regard to finer details on the pitch, Southampton are generating chances however these are just not being taken as the moment. Without singling out one player too much, at 0-0 against Hull Rothwell spurned an excellent opportunity while 1v1 with the keeper before again wasting an effort Saturday as his shot from Armstrong’s lay off tamely went into the hands of the keeper. When you consider the Bournemouth loanee scored a piledriver earlier in February it’s surprising these two opportunities passed him by.

It’s not just Rothwell though. Adam Armstrong hasn’t scored in open play since Rotherham (A) start of the month. The previously prolific striker struggling at the moment.

Having gone from being a ruthless machine to struggling to get the cylinders running Saints seemingly just need a win by any means. We’ve all enjoyed the fluidity of the football recently but there’s something to be said for a result like those at Stoke or QPR. Set piece goals taking all three points in a tight nervy encounter. A result to remind the fans and more importantly the players that they’re still able to win ugly.

Wouldn’t it be lovely to beat Liverpool with a last minute Stu Armstrong free kick!