How to Beat ….. 2

 

Welcome back! 

Leicester (A) is the second in the trilogy of tough games against the top three. Here’s hoping ITC’s second instalment in the How to beat … series is more “Empire Strikes Back” than “The Last Jedi.”

Sadly, a quick debrief of Ipswich is needed. FT 3-2, one of the best performances for the first 60 minutes, alas football matches last roughly 90. Specifically they last 97 minutes in Suffolk. Knowledge can be a great burden and having discussed avoiding late goals in part one of this series seeing Sarmiento’s toe poke was truly demoralising. The most surprising deviation from ITC’s pre match suggestions was the exclusion of KWP from the lineup. Not in keeping with the cohesive defence narrative although Bree had a decent game up until his 85th minute red card. A sending off that seemed to be unjust as surely THB was on the cover - a hill I’m prepared to die on.

Anyway, onwards and  upwards. Southampton had miraculously got themselves back in the conversation for automatic promotion however Saturdays defeat in Wales has all but squashed that dream. Now automatic promotion is dependent on one of the top three falling off a cliff form-wise, the dream isn’t over but even winning the final three games may not prove enough anymore. Going forward the mindset has to be entering the playoff schedule in the best form possible. Starting with a win at Leicester.

A tight encounter

Ipswich (A) was the meeting of the two highest scoring teams in the Championship. It felt inevitable that is was going to be end to end like a basketball match whereas this is match feels more comparable to Test Cricket. A war of attrition between Maresca and RM as the sides who top the possession chart meet at the King Power on Tuesday night. Southampton’s devilishly attractive footballl generating 66.6% possession compared to Leicester’s measily 62.7%.

The overarching feeling is this game will be cagey and tight with little margin for error. Leicester have lost 10 matches this season, 8 of which by a single goal margin. It’s is unlikely Southampton will blow them away, undoubtedly hard graft will be required to see this one over the line. Out of these 8 particular losses, 6 have been by a 1-0 score line. Keeping a clean sheet obviously increases chance of victory but against a side like Leicester this will be crucial to any success. The worrying statistic though is just 2 clean sheet out of the last 11 league games for Saints. These coming against hapless Blackburn & Preston neither possess the firepower of the Foxes. 

With Macca back between the sticks the goalkeeper performance will need to be similar to his heroics at Swansea in 2018 as his clutch performance helped Southampton secure a memorable 0-1 victory. Ultimately, let’s try survive longer than 12 seconds before conceding this time and take the game from there.

Back on the theme of tight and cagey football, it would not be unsurprising to see Jack Stephens start in his hybrid wide defender / midfielder role. RM has employed this strategy away to Ipswich & West Brom in an attempt to gain more control centrally in matches. Control is one thing, seeing out a 1-0 win is a different beast entirely. A beast Southampton haven’t conquered since QPR on 23rd December.

Exploiting the high line 

Picture time now. The below is a still image in the build up to Finn Azaz’s opener for Middlesbrough as they beat Leicester 1-2 back in February. It’s useful in identifying an area Southampton could exploit as an avenue to goal. 

Leicester hold a very high defensive line but their defenders aren’t the quickest - we’ve all seen Vestergaard in a sprint before. Lewis O’Brien makes an underlapping run and due to the positioning of Leicester’s back line he has acres of space to carry the ball into before squaring across to Azaz.

What’s noteworthy here is that this isn’t a one off occurrence. Further examples can be seen against QPR and Bristol City.

Build up to Ilias Chair’s goal. 1-2 QPR win

Build up for a Bristol City attack that could - probably should - have resulted in a penalty

Not both are underlapping specifically but both are penetrative runs beyond Leicester’s defence. Southampton posses a plethora of wide players capable of making these types of runs such as Fraser, Kamaldeen et al but arguably the best at these specific underlapping runs is Stu Armstrong who is now out for the remainder of the season. Rothwell perhaps is next best suited being a Central Midfielder whose input is far better driving forward than it defensively. Smallbone and Aribo both have good ball retention qualities but don’t quite have the gut-busting runs in their armoury. Rothwell could prove a wildcard pick for RM.

The big caveat surrounding Saints utilising these sorts of movements is that the sides shown (QPR, Boro & Bristol City) are less possession centric and willing to transition forward quicker whereas, typically, Southampton operate a slower, more methodical build up pattern. Potentially deviating slightly from the RM playbook could prove fruitful Tuesday night. 

Regardless of the state of play in the automatic promotion race beating Leicester has potential to be the perfect catalyst. Either it throws one final cat among the pigeons or it reminds players and supporters that we are capable of bettering one of the top three. As it stands the only win against these teams was Leeds back at the end of September. A win no one saw coming, which given the demoralised fan base after Cardiff is a similar place we find ourselves now.

Hopefully that’s a good omen.