You’re never more vulnerable defensively than just after you score’ - Southampton are the epitome of this age old adage this season having conceded within 5 minutes of scoring in three of their four Championship games this season.
Speaking to BBC radio Solent RM commented on this issue, “The mentality when score is nowhere near good enough, we need to address that.” Undoubtedly this needs addressing as while you can dress up the statistic as 3/4 games the currently reality is this has occurred in 3 consecutive matches. Impressively a more damning commentary on already bleak events.
What though are the contributing factors as to why Southampton have succumbed to this? Is it a simple, if frustrating, case of bad luck? Or is the issue down to the current turbulence in team selection?
An unsettled XI
RM has thus far been unable to field the same starting XI for matches this season mostly due to outgoing transfers or injuries. Seven players have started every league game so far; Bazunu, KWP, Stephens, Bednarek, Manning, Edozie & Adam Armstrong. Positionally that’s the back five and two of the attacking front three. Notably of those seven none are midfielders, albeit Armstrong deputised in midfield against Plymouth.
Two of the quick fire equalisers conceded were relative ‘pot shots’ from distance - Sara for Norwich and Colback for QPR - both of whom were in front of Southampton’s defence when shooting.
Typically this an area of the pitch where a ‘No.6’ would be positioned however Saints have struggled for a consistent presence in this area. Firstly as a result of the departing JWP, in the Norwich game Smallbone found himself to be the lone pivot in a midfield comprising of Alcaraz, Stu and himself. Furthermore (against QPR) an enforced in-game personnel switch - Jack Stephens injury in the 25th minute - Shea Charles dropped into CB and Downes handed his debut sitting as a 6 again alongside Charly and Stu.
QPR scoring in the 32nd minute.
Perhaps a lack of continuity in defensive midfield is the reason for these goals, alternatively there’s a school of thought that a midfield trio including Armstrong and Alcaraz doesn’t offer enough defensive stability. With Sunderland away up next, one of the more intimidating away grounds, it will be interesting to see if RM opts for a midfield with either Armstrong OR Alcaraz lining up with Downes and Charles to offer that defensive structure.
*For those wondering, Mason Holgate replaces Stephens in defence with the stated midfield structure.
Simply just bad luck
The numbers and the statistics don’t lie however there is a very valid notion that this occurrence could simply be a series of unfortunate events and just bad luck.
Now I’m not blaming Lemony Snicket but for this specific situation to occur in three consecutive fixtures is unfortunate, particularly when looking at the goals themselves.
As mentioned earlier both Sara’s & Colback’s strikes were from outside the box through a sea of bodies. Despite scoring these chances generated minimal xG; 0.06 for Sara and 0.02 for Colback. Based on this Southampton can feel hard done by to concede in these instances.
Lady luck may not have had a role in Ryan Hardie’s finish for Plymouth’s equaliser however Saints can feel aggrieved regarding a moment in the build up. Ryan Manning rushing out to meet Plymouth forward Morgan Whittaker on the byline, slipping just as Whittaker takes his first touch. This affords Whittaker the freedom of the right hand channel allowing him to drive toward the box before picking out Hardie with a driven cross.
Had Manning managed to stay on his feet in this instance it’s likely the goal wouldn’t have happened. Manning won 50% (3/6) of his ground duels against Plymouth so it’s no guarantee the Irish international would have won the ball back immediately however by halting Whitaker’s progress Edozie should have been able to help double up on the Plymouth attacker.
Ultimately despite conceding these goals Southampton are yet to lose in the Championship. As RM said to BBC Radio Solent “We are winning while learning and winning while building” and that’s an important takeaway. Southampton are not quite the finished article, not quite the final evolution of RM-Ball and hopefully we can begin to separate ourselves from the aforementioned adage starting against Sunderland on Saturday.
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