Southampton have had over 75% possession in three games this season and only won one of those - away to Sheffield Wednesday. The other two matches both ending 1-1. Rotherham at St Mary’s and most recently Huddersfield away.
When bordering on total dominance of the football, why is it Southampton can’t seem to get over the line? Is there a thing as too much possession?
Let’s take a look.
Post match Russell Martin said “It's really similar to the Rotherham game so maybe the players felt this is nice, but it is never easy. Our mentality has cost us two points.” In both matches Southampton dominated the shot count as well as ball possession. Mustering 12 shots in the first half against both sides. In contrast Rotherham and Huddersfield managed 1 shot each in the first half of their respective games. Despite the shot dominance Southampton only scored once in the first half of both games failing to turn the screw and be ruthless. That feeling of “nice” on the pitch causing complacency and that’s the mentality RM refers to. Sadly it’s becoming an all too familiar story this season.
Southampton have only secured a two goal lead twice this season, Leeds and Birmingham. Unsurprisingly these are two of the more convincing wins this season. Arguably making it more frustrating that Southampton are able to turn the screw against a team of Leeds quality but have struggled against supposed lesser sides. Returning to the ideas of complacency setting in.
The above shows the momentum graph vs Huddersfield. These graphs are not only good for checking when to cash out on your bets, they also provide an accurate reflection of the game state. As seen the blue is hardly present in the first half yet the second shows sustain periods of Huddersfield momentum. A visual aid highlighting Saints lack of ruthlessness.
Let’s park the mentality element briefly. Southampton have won 7 games by a single goal margin, which in itself takes a certain type of mentality. So what else could have caused these two draws? When Southampton were so ball dominant on both occasions.
The short answer is Saints, frustratingly, concede from low quality chances. The equalising goals in both instances were not neatly carved out chances. One was a lob from 25 yards out and the other was an in-swinging cross that evaded everyone before nestling into the far side netting. Both shots generated a xG of 0.01.
In laymen’s terms these chances are scored once in every 100 efforts.
Not to get all ‘OPTA Analyst’ on everyone but xG value represents the likelihood of the ball going in at the moment the shot is taken so it doesn’t account for the accuracy of the shot itself. On the other hand xGOT (expected goals on target) refers to the likelihood of a goal given the original effort was in fact on target. I emphasise the difference primarily to provide a different value more reflective on the quality of the goals conceded by Saints. Ben Jackson’s goal generated a xGOT of 0.58, considering Adam Armstrong’s opener posted 0.93 xGOT it was a relatively low quality chance for Huddersfield.
The real damming implementation of this metric is Jordan Hugil’s lob. An xGOT of 0.11 meaning even with the effort being on target the likelihood of a goal was 1 in 10.
Low quality chances or fluke goals are scored frequently throughout the Football League. Therefore it’s inevitable that at some point Saints will be on the receiving end of one. Although if you’re only leading by one goal the margin for error is smaller, you cannot afford to conceded silly goals.
Succumbing to these type of chances wouldn’t be an issue had Saints been more ruthless in their approach. After Adam Armstrong the next highest scoring forward is Che Adams (3) who hasn’t scored since August. Forward players need to start contributing more with goals to help establish a cutting edge.
The possession number is the statistic that stands out however I don’t think it’s a case of ‘too much.’ Simply put Southampton are not clinical enough throughout matches. The chances, as shown by the shot counts, are there the issue is taking them. Having rickety moments doesn’t help either but if you can establish a substantial lead it doesn’t matter
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