Has the lack of Carabao Cup action been beneficial to Southampton?

 

Last season was awful. Arguably the only bright spark was the Carabao Cup run. Semi finalists and an exceptional victory over the soon to be treble winners Manchester City. A win so incredible it earned the now unemployed Nathan Jones a Coaching Masterclass video on YouTube.

Success in the competition this season however was none existent. Saints fans were treated to an extra round, having not featured in the First Round since 2011, unfortunately the campaign went no further as Southampton lost 3-1 at League Two Gillingham.

Has this actually been a blessing in disguise? Given the frequent Saturday/Tuesday nature of the Championship, has the absence of a domestic cup competition been beneficial to Southampton?

Saints fell at the first hurdle on August 9th, the Second Round was played W/C 28th August. Southampton were unbeaten in their first four league games with a trip to Sunderland to come. The lack of a midweek match should have allowed Southampton the chance to cope with the final week of the transfer window and fully prepare themselves for the longest away trip of the season.

Southampton went on to be battered 5-0 at the Stadium of Light.

In reality there’s no connection between the Carabao Cup exit and the heavy defeat. There were far more mitigating factors that led to this loss; the uncertainty caused by the transfer window closing, conceding inside one minute, Jack Stephens injury combined with Taylor Harwood-Bellis not ready to make his debut & who could forget Flynn Downes still recovering from food poisoning.

With regard to this gameweek you can’t really answer the titular question however when you take a look at the 3rd round the importance of free time for the Saints really comes into play.

Matches in the 3rd round took place W/C 25th September. After 3 defeats in an 8 day period - Leicester, Ipswich & Middlesbrough - Southampton found themselves with a free midweek before a daunting home clash with Leeds United on the horizon.

Southampton went on to beat Leeds 3-1.

This is where Southampton’s absence from this competition begins to have a positive impact. Against Leeds Russell Martin would, for the first time in the season, start Kamaldeen, A. Armstrong & Alcaraz implementing an asymmetrical attacking system that allowed Kamaldeen to stay wide left while KWP marauded down the right as Armstrong cut in. This tactical switch by RM was too much for Leeds and demonstrated an adaptability to his managerial style. The free time after the Middlesbrough defeat certainly helped Southampton settle down and find their levels.

This victory over Leeds kickstarted Southampton’s upturn in form and by the time the Fourth Round rolled around (W/C 30th October) Saints were 6 unbeaten. A trip to Millwall to come.

There’s a school of thought that when you’re winning you just want the games to keep coming, to carry on the hot streak. The Championship schedule provides the quick fire nature of fixtures anyway without adding extras to the calendar. Prior to the W/C 30th October Southampton had played a 3 game week securing 7/9 points available. A rest was needed.

Southampton beat Millwall 1-0. Again utilising the free midweek and continuing the unbeaten run.

This week sees the competition reach the Quarter Final stage. Would Saints have even made it this far? Who knows. However it does fall at a critical point in the Championship calendar so let’s take a look anyway.

The only Championship team remaining is Middlesbrough, ironically they came through the bracket via a route Southampton were eliminated from. I’ll show my working to clarify this.

Gillingham beat Southampton, Luton beat Gillingham, Exeter beat Luton & Middlesbrough beat Exeter. A tenuous link nevertheless in some parallel universe Southampton are the side in the Quarter finals. 

With an upcoming hectic festive period of fixtures - 4 games in 10 days - a domestic cup Quarter Final would be a truly unnecessary distraction. Southampton are no longer a Premier League side able to view this competition as a chance of silverware, instead the league has to be priority number one. A full week between Blackburn and QPR matches should be perfect for rest/recovery.

At the time the defeat to Gillingham was tough to take given the respective divisions, ultimately it was a defeat that would always need hindsight to make sense of it. Aside from a horror show against Sunderland the other ‘free weeks’ in the calendar have led to victories. Another win at QPR this Saturday would help this narrative.