How to Beat ……

 

As listeners of the excellent In That Number podcast will be aware recently the In The Channel family increased its numbers. Another Saints fan added to the world. Unfortunately 2 under 2 years of age doesn’t create a conducive working environment to publish hit after hit that you (the reader) has to come expect from this blog.

Nevertheless as a fan I keep up with the Saints online discourse and recent mumblings regarding the current promotion picture has led me to the premise behind the next series of articles. Automatic promotion spots seem out of reach with Southampton nine points behind the top two yet as every regretful optimist has ever said - “it’s the hope that kills you.”

Hope that a combination of games in hand & crunch trips to the Championship’s top three may swing the promotion pendulum back in Southampton’s favour. The latter the driving force behind this series. Not merely a case of ‘could’ Southampton pull off monumental victories away at Portman Road, King Power Stadium & Elland Road but how does Russell Martin’s side go about this.

Welcome to the “How to Beat ……” series. 

Seems appropriate to cover this remit chronologically so let’s start with Ipswich.

The Tractor Boys are the Championship’s top scorers (80) and have lost just 5 league games this season, the fewest of the top four. To add further jeopardy only one of these defeats was at home - a 3-4 humdinger with Leeds United back in August.

Single goal margins of victory are common for Ipswich amassing 16/24 wins this way. Do not let this knowledge lead you to the assumption that ‘Town’ are defensively solid. Having conceded 49 goals this campaign ranking they rank as the leakiest defence among the current top four. Ipswich’s proficiency in attack combined with relative inefficiency in defence means goals can be expected. Particularly as Saints rank third for goals scored behind Ipswich and Leicester (73.) 

Fear not the analysis in this piece is not simply that Southampton having a prolific attack will help to beat Ipswich. The intricacy here is timing of scoring goals. 

Early goals are crucial

The common commentator adage of teams ‘scoring too early’ may not be applicable against Ipswich. In 4/5 defeats they’ve conceded a goal in the opening 10 minutes.

Leeds 3-4 - Rutter (10)

West Brom 2-0 - Furlong (5)

Leeds (Again) 4-0 - Struijk (8)

Preston 3-2 - Keane (5) & Edmundson OG (8)

Looking at the above graphic Ipswich’s leakiest spell is minutes 0-15. The suggestion here that an early goal for Southampton is key to success in this fixture.

Notably the two 15 minute periods in which Ipswich are in a goal deficit are at the start of both halves implying they typically are slow off the blocks. Saints need to capitalise in these moments and looking (below) at Southampton’s goal scoring timings away from home the 0-15 section has seen 4 goals on their travels.

The graphic shows that Southampton also struggle straight after half time implying that the match could become a “clusterfuck” - to use a technical term - at the start of the second period.

Avoid conceding late

Granted this subheading does put the article at risk of becoming goal centric however two points I’d like to throw out there. Firstly goals win games so there’s that. Secondly Ipswich frequently score late goals. How often have we thought the Tractor Boys might be dropping points only for *insert app of choice* to inform you they’d found a late goal. In fact they’ve found the back of the net 22 times in the final 15 minutes of matches. For those shouting “Russell Martin’s late late show” at their phones Southampton have scored less in this period. Just the 21 for the Saints.

This late goal occurrence offers an interesting tactical footnote on the game. A common stick to beat Martin with is he makes substitutions too early. Using the most recent match against Sunderland as an example, RM brought off Smallbone & Brooks on the 58th minute with Southampton in relative control leading 2-0. Within 15 minutes it was 2-2.

A double substitution so early in the game impacting team cohesion. Granted his choice of substitutions at 2-2 led to restoring the lead and claiming the win. The perk of the high quality bench at his disposal however the game became unnecessarily nervy.

With all due respect to Sunderland, you would imagine Ipswich at home are not going to be dominated in the same manner that the Black Cats were suggesting control in this match will be harder to come by. Thus a lack of continued control might cause RM to delay substitutions in order to allow continuity and cohesiveness to prevail.

Equally completely feasible that RM might go gung-ho at 2-0 down in an attempt to salvage something.

Selection, selection, selection.

For the final point - yes I said final, you’re so close to the end thank you for sticking with this  - let’s cast our minds back to the reverse fixture. I know we’re all super keen to relive that truly awful Tuesday night in September but looking back there’s such easy tweaks from that game to give Saints a better chance this time around.

The big tweak in question is the team selection. Refreshing the memory for you all, below was the Saints starting XI last time around

*Reference - FotMob

A Centre Back pairing of Charles & THB, this their second outing after shipping 4 together against Leicester a few days earlier. Alternatively, THAT midfield might be what catches your eye. Aribo’s first start of the season and he certainly was not the dynamic no. 8 he is now. Adam Armstrong at CM after an impressive showing away to Plymouth whereby Southampton’s number nine bagged 2 assists and seemed to convince us all that he had a potential future in a deeper role. To top it off Smallbone in the no. 6 role, the less said about that the better.

In defence of this selection it was somewhat makeshift for good reason. Stephens was out injured, Bednerak was returning from injury, Holgate was recovering from his shock-a-thon away to Sunderland & Downes hadn’t passed his food safety level 2.

Thankfully as it stands, at time of print, Southampton do not have the same injury worries. Fraser will most likely be out but due to depth in his position it’s less of a catastrophe. The big question mark though would be KWP, interesting to see what his minutes against Middlesbrough look like.

KWP caveat aside Southampton have a much more assured starting lineup than they did back in September. THB & Janny B are one of the best defensive pairings in the league. The Downes & Smallbone axis in midfield is a force to be reckoned with particularly with the delightful accompaniment of Stu Armstrong as the roaming attacking midfielder. 

These six names pick themselves in the starting XI currently. That cohesion - there’s that word again - and quality within the spine of the team will be crucial against Ipswich.

I promised that was the last subheading and it was. Let’s sign off with a conclusion that has the feel of a quick fire buzzer round on a quiz show.

To answer the titular question;

Score early, ideally score first.

Don’t concede late in the game, ideally score a late winner ourselves.

Don’t get too over zealous with substitutions.

Finally please start a reliable defence and an organised, coherent midfield.

That ought to do it!