Three takeaways from a three game week

 

Another three game week, another 7 point haul. The mood happier than it was after the same haul was secured with a 1-1 draw with Rotherham, in part due to Saints snatching a point from the jaws of defeat rather than drawing from such a dominant position. More than that it’s the bigger picture that’s really uplifting.

Southampton are now 4th and unbeaten in 6 matches. 

What have we learned during this particular Championship trilogy? 

Seemingly there’s is almost a unilateral understanding of the strongest midfield Southampton can field. Downes, Smallbone & Stu Armstrong. A home nations cocktail that has been crucial in this unbeaten run. Noteworthy that Leeds (H) was the first outing for this trio and they have only not started together once since then - Preston (A).

The Downes/Smallbone axis provides Championship nous, an understanding of the need for tactical fouls and breaking up play, while utilising both players passing qualities. Downes pass success rate of 95.4% marginally better than Smallbone’s 92.2%. 

This stability allows Stu Armstrong to do what he does best. Carry the ball. Averaging 19 carries per 90 which places him 5th amongst the squad behind THB, Jan Bednerak, KWP and Kamaldeen Sulemana. As many Championship sides operate in a mid/low block it’s common that the centre backs often find themselves in possession. Additionally KWP and Kamaldeen have the freedom of their respective channels so unsurprisingly feature at the top of this metric. Stu’s ability though to collect the ball in central areas between defensive lines is what makes this impressive. Furthermore his average carry distance (12.55m) ranks No.1 for the Saints highlighting his ability.

The concern has to be how the team operate when this triad aren’t on the pitch together. We saw without Stu against Preston creativity was lacking somewhat centrally. Given Smallbone is only one yellow card away from suspension, should he pick up a booking against Millwall it will be interesting to see how the midfield looks & functions in the following fixture.

We mention RM’s settled midfield however his use of the wider squad should also be applauded after this week. If I were to say to you reader that James Bree would emerge as an option, nay a good option at left back you probably would have laughed at me. 

Ryan Manning’s booking away to Hull took his tally to five yellow cards for this season subsequently ruling him out of the Preston match. A common school of thought amongst Saints fan was KWP would be shifted across to the left side, as has happened historically, and Bree or Holgate would get the nod at right back. KWP is arguably our best player, rightly RM didn’t want to disrupt him so Bree was given his first start at left back. 

Bree bossed it. Winning 4/6 ground duels & 2/2 aerial duels. He was rewarded with another start against Birmingham, this despite Manning being eligible to play. A great example of the meritocracy RM has installed at Southampton, take your chance and you’ll play.

Another player that RM seems to have figured out how best to use is Ryan Fraser. A definition of an impact sub. Off the bench to score the winner at Hull, off the bench to swing in the corner that caused the Ched Evans og & off the bench once more against Birmingham to provide the cross that Edozie would head down for Adam Armstrong to kill the match. 

RM often talks about mentality when it comes to this Southampton side, Fraser has that ‘dig deep’ mindset to see out games but more importantly he possesses the quality to make a difference in an attacking sense. 

A far cry from previous seasons of bringing on Elynoussi to help our rest defence. *Eye roll/face palm combo

Lastly on the squad front, personally I’m pleased for Holgate. Mainly pleased that he didn’t experience another collapse. When your two starts including the Sunderland hammering and the defeat to at the time second bottom Middlesbrough there’s a realistic chance of becoming a scapegoat. Holgate did come on late to solidify the defence at Stoke but it was nice for the Everton loanee to have a start that didn’t result in costly errors - shambolic second half kick off routine aside.

The third and final learning point is undoubtedly the most glass half-full of the lot. Despite being the joint 4th scoring team in the league you can’t help feel a ‘proper’ central striker is the final piece of the puzzle. 

Now this isn’t to say Southampton have bad attacking phases of play, quite the opposite. The fluidity of the first choice attackers is a joy to watch at times however there in-lies part of the issue. First choice being the operative phrase, take away top goalscorer Adam Armstrong - 8 goals - then options off the bench or as part of rotation can look limited. Adams hasn’t scored since August & Mara hasn’t scored full stop. The two have had opportunities to stake a claim for the position, Adams somehow blanking against Rotherham before taking a knock against Preston while Mara’s most notable misses were firing wide as a substitute at Stoke as well as not really clicking into gear in the second half against Preston.

Deadline day signing Ross Stewart is set to return in the not to distant future, the hope will be he can hit the ground running from a goalscoring perspective. A different option for RM in attack that ideally could push for double digit goal tally before the season is done.

The next three game week isn’t until the end of November with a trip to Huddersfield and two home matches against Bristol City and Cardiff. An international break and clashes with Millwall and West Brom to come first. No need to concern ourselves three game hauls anytime soon.

Let’s not underestimate the Tigers

 

As Southampton faded from footballing prominence in the late 00’s, Hull City were roaring, I mean soaring. That’s the only tiger based pun, promise.

Mavericks like Geovani & Jimmy Bullard managed by Basil Fawlty-esque Phil Brown, Hull were a relatively likeable side in the Premier League. In the last 15 years though the Tigers have had three bites at the Premier League cherry, they’ve suffered Wembley heartbreak in a FA Cup final & enjoyed a one season stint in League One. 

Very much topsy-turvy Tigers.

It’s very easy to underestimate Championship sides that don’t carry the name weight of a Leicester City or Leeds United but don’t be fooled by Hull City. Under Liam Rosenior they’re an exciting side with young talent throughout that are certainly capable of being playoff contenders.

As a fan of the sitcom Two Pints of Lager & Packet of Crisps we’ll look at Hull City through a similar lens. Two loanees and a marque signing. 

Liam Delap & Tyler Morton -  from Manchester City and Liverpool respectively - both experienced the Championship last season with varying levels of success. Morton a stalwart in Blackburn’s side whereas Delap struggled at Stoke & Preston but if Pep Guerdiola rates the striker you can afford him a rough season at two teams who, let’s be real, are underwhelming from an attacking point of view. 

They’re the loanees of note, now the standout signing. Jadon Philogene-Bidace.

1 goal and 3 assists in his 6 games since joining from Aston Villa. The left sided forward key to Hull’s attacking play, a keen dribbler with a 70% success rate so far. He links up with England U21 teammate Delap in the Tigers front three.

Noteworthy that Philogene-Bidace bagged a brace in England’s recent 9-1 win against Luxembourg. Delap too on the scoresheet. 

Two forwards in form, just what Saints want to face. Not.

Moreover, young talent isn’t the only thing that defines Rosenior’s side, they simply put are quite hard to beat. Only losing twice this campaign, both away from the MKM stadium. Once to a very late goal against Norwich City in the season opener and the other away to high flying Ipswich Town - maybe it’s something to do with trips East Anglia. In Rosenior’s 41 games in charge Hull have lost just 10 (24.39%.)

Not only are they proving hard to beat Hull City are also capable of beating the supposed ‘big boys’ of the division. Currently Hull are the only side to beat Leicester City in the Championship. A 0-1 win at the King Power Stadium courtesy of a long range Liam Delap strike. Hull won this match with just 36% possession - sounds like a familiar story right. Leicester had 21 shots yet only posted a xG of 1.20. A high shot count with a low xG value, the plot thickens.

Saints may be unbeaten in three matches however given the last performance after an international break - Leicester, 1-4 - let’s temper expectations regarding the trip to Humberside.

Boooo-gate! A Southampton saga

 

“That to me is mental” Flynn Downes reaction to the rather vocal criticism after Southampton’s 1-1 draw with Rotherham United. Worth remembering that last season Flynn Downes contributed to a European Cup winning side whereas Southampton were relegated, finishing bottom of the Premier League. Perhaps the 24 year old midfielder isn’t quite reading the room here.

Generally the noise wasn’t a direct reaction to the Rotherham game, yes Southampton should have won but being diplomatic you can chalk this particular fixture up as “one off those days” where the keeper has a blinder and the opposition score with one of only two shots on target.

You can’t though extend the unlucky narrative too far. “Unlucky” isn’t the reason we find ourselves in the Championship, failing to win games is. Southampton last season spectacularly underperformed versus xG scoring 8 fewer than the metric suggested they should. Saturday, Southampton reverted to type, if you will, scoring 1 goal while posting a xG of 3.23.

The result a tough reminder that Southampton continue to struggle killing games off. Noteworthy that Saints have only won by a 2 goal (or more) margin once this season.

Furthermore the draw with Rotherham is yet another home game Southampton have failed to register a win. 

Just 3 league wins at St Mary’s in 2023. 

In the last promotion campaign (2011/12) Southampton’s home record was excellent 16-4-3 amassing 52 points in SO14. After 6 home games the 23/24 record is 2-2-2, you extrapolate that across a season you’re looking at 8-8-7 (23 games at St Mary’s.)

You doubt a mediocre record like that will be enough to sustain a promotion challenge, especially when Southampton already find themselves 11 points off the top 2.

Being of the pace early doors has led to an even greater need to maximise points at each opportunity. This urgency primarily necessitated by a truly awful September! For all intents and purposes Leeds (H) counts as October.

It was big ‘Green Day - Wake Me up When September ends’ energy around St Mary’s.  A four game losing streak including a thrashing, two disappointing home defeats & a loss to a winless side is hardly going to rouse an already malcontented crowd. Add in the fact that had Southampton held onto the victory vs Rotherham they’d currently be sat in 6th place. A playoff spot and a feeling that they’re still firmly in the hunt for an automatic spot.

Whereas in reality the points dropped sets up a ‘race for 8th’ clash with Hull City after the international break. 

Honestly I understand Downes’ sentiment regarding “Boo-gate” as mentioned earlier it’s been a good week (7/9) but it’s been a good week in a poor month, in a poor year.     When you read the room, analyse the situation the noise is somewhat understandable. 

For Downes instead of unhelpful language like “mental,” better to let football do the talking. More weeks like the last will certainly go a longer way to silencing any noise. 

In the Channel visits: Hertha BSC Vs St Pauli

 

Beyond being a hive of Southampton FC hot-takes, first and foremost In The Channel (ITC) is a platform for football conversation. This week that conversation reinstalls Duolingo and travels across the English Channel to Germany. 

This is Hertha Berlin Vs St Pauli.

A match taking place in an iconic Olympic Stadium with pitch and fans separated by a bold blue running track that critics say creates a barrier to the action while others, like myself, argue that much like a picture frame the track focuses the eye on that rectangular structure that houses so many hopes & dreams.

This 2. Bundesliga clash the first league meeting since the 2012/13 season. St Pauli  have waited 11 years to revisit the Olympiastadion after a 1-0 defeat, 19th November 2012.

As the familiar ITC reader knows Southampton, the principal conversation topic, ply their trade in the English second division somewhat fitting the first international instalment takes place outside of the big 5 European leagues. F*ck modern football am I right?

Overarching commentary on European football aside, if I had to summarise the occasion in one word….

Nuts! 

Two words, Absolutely crazy!

Three words… 

Sheer f*cking chaos! (You get the picture.)

A reported 12,000 St Pauli fans were inside the stadium. A figure representative of those with tickets for the official away end, therefore ignoring the hundreds of FCSP who adopted the easier route of acquiring tickets in the Hertha BSC end. Of course it wouldn’t be an iconic sporting venue if there weren’t simple logistical issues. Despite the scale of the away following there were only 7 electronic turnstiles to use causing severe backlog.

A gentle reminder that on 12/12/23 Real Madrid come to town (with the Olympiastadion hosting Union Berlin UCL games) you’d imagine the attendance would A. Be much closer to the capacity of 74,745 and B. Be far greater than the 66,113 crowd managed for a German second division match.

I can’t quite imagine “Los Blancos” being quite as tolerant as the St Pauli ultras were.

On a personal note this was a fifth visit to the Olympiastadion however the first time as an away supporter. Previously I’d only seen 1-1 or 0-0 draws. No spoilers but this encounter had a well deserved winner and if you haven’t already opened another tab to check the result you’ll have to keep reading I’m afraid.

I genuinely don’t 1-2 keep that information disclosed for too long - if you know you know!

St Pauli are a very interesting side whereas Hertha are, to be polite, not. Hertha BSC seem trapped in operating in a rigid 4-4-1-1 formation be that in or out of possession. In contrast St Pauli, under 30 (yes thirty!) year old Fabian Hurzeler are very exciting. 

A stoic 5-4-1 out of possession and an expressive 3-4-3 with the ball, talent dotted all over the pitch. Wingers Elias Saad & Oladapo Afolayan (Dapo) are electric! Midfielder Marcel Hartel, a very tidy No. 10 with a wonderfully onomatopoeic name. Not forgetting the Australian duo Connor Metcalfe, who’s more than capable of scoring a screamer - check out his strike Vs Holstein Kiel - & Jackson Irvine, club captain and the embodiment of what makes St Pauli wonderfully quirky.

Unbeaten in 12 games prior to this one St Pauli were favourites pre match. The performance acting as justification for that billing. St Pauli led one nil at half time after a surging run from Saad who cut the ball back for striker Eggestien. Hertha keeper saving the original effort but the St Pauli player was first to the rebound tapping into the empty net. 

In truth St Pauli could’ve been out of sight at the end of the half with Saad, Dapo & Hartel coming close.

The second goal did arrive in the 74th minute as Hartel leapt, to quote the Welcome to Hell St Pauli podcast, like a salmon heading upstream. His header cannoning in off the underside of the bar sparking pandemonium in the away end.

Much like another team with Saint prominent in their identity, St Pauli conspired to make things difficult for themselves. Gifting Hertha a lifeline in the 83rd minute after a losing possession playing out from the back. 1-2.

Despite a late onslaught of crosses that prime Stoke City would’ve been proud of, St Pauli held on for a monumental win. The Hamburg side went top of the 2. Bundesliga after their win in Berlin. More impressively St Pauli are unbeaten in 13 games. Last defeat, regrettably, at the hands of city rivals HSV. 

In an era of few elite German coaches the emergence of Hurtzler at the helm of this St Pauli side is refreshing. Not wanting to place the manager on the market but should St Pauli not achieve promotion this year you imagine he will be on the shortlist of many Bundesliga sides.

*Authors note

This article was delayed in order to not jinx St Pauli just before the international break.  A decision I’m sure all fans of the braun weiß appreciate as Saturday 7th October they battered Nürnberg 5-1 at the Millentor to establish a two point lead at the top of the table. Long may it continue!

Pain, Courage & Strap in - The vocabulary behind the disconnect at Southampton

 

3 - 1 - 4. Southampton’s record having lost to Middlesbrough Saturday afternoon. The four in the defeat column occurring in successive games as September threatens to end with zero points - Leeds on the 30th a veritable last chance saloon to rectify this. After beating Sheffield Wednesday on the opening night, “HMS Piss the League” emerged as jovial fan rhetoric but now murmurs of a “Martin out” maxim is growing, a far cry from the whimsical optimism of August.

The notion of a sacking a manager at this stage is premature as realistically it’s still early days. Granted it may not feel like it having played 8 games already however due to the sheer length of the Championship season there is still a whopping 38 games to go. Effectively a full length Premier League season awaits us, perhaps not the best analogy given the our last full PL season. 

Ultimately the rise of the stated maxim stems deeper beyond merely four poor results and lends itself to a greater narrative surrounding the relationship between the club and the fans.

Southampton is undergoing a hard reset. As RM put himself “if anyone expected there not to be any pain when it’s such a big change then they are very naive.” The proverbial rod made for his [RM] back is that the start of the season was so promising. An unbeaten August, culminating in 10 points, is naturally going see an upsurge in fan expectation. The subsequent decline becomes far more impactful. There is a poignant caveat regarding the swing in opponent quality from August to September but from fan perception sunshine & roses has reverted back to chastening flashbacks of the last campaign. 

The “pain” coming after early gains.

In addition to the “naive” comment, RM has stressed the need to ‘strap in’ in relation to potential peaks and troughs this season. A rousing request more befitting a cinematic blockbuster than a football team with current delusions of grandeur - albeit an understandable request given the evident overhaul tactically.   

Furthermore RM iterates the buzzword courage regarding the teams style of play in the knowledge that “there will be sticky moments but when you see it through and ride through this moment it will be brilliant.” A sort of karmic merry go round of fans trusting the players to exude the required courage to perform a certain way, is a challenging concept in an environment that demands instantaneous results alongside offering minimal margin for error.

The underlying culture shift at Southampton certainly requires fan involvement although this engagement is, and will be, a function of mood. Barring the Sunderland fiasco the other three games in this run of defeats have all had moments in which the mood was positive thus the fan/team connection is there. After Edozie reduced the deficit against Leicester there was a palpable feeling that Saints, unlike many times last season, were not down and out. This feeling present again versus Ipswich as Southampton pushed for an equaliser only for Adams to be denied by the keeper’s face. Even the lesser experienced sensation of being a tad in control was present in the first half of the Middlesbrough match prior to their equaliser.

The above nicely demonstrates the beginning of the disconnect causing the “Martin out” noise. The aforementioned sticky moments are common place in football, pretty much every team in every match experiences these. The problem is these moments are being ruthless punished by opposing teams, subsequently the supporters get jittery when situations repeat themselves and anxiety leaks out of the stands like a dense fog. Naturally the players pick up on this and make further errors, ending up in a what came first the chicken or the egg style debate.

Sounds obvious but Southampton (sooner rather than later) simply need to get over the line, proving to both supporters and themselves they have the capacity to overcome challenges. This eureka moment, this lightbulb moment is exactly what is needed to quieten down the murmurs surrounding the manager.

Goliath Vs Goliath: Mano A Mano

 

*Disclaimer

The more regular In The Channel reader will have noticed a lack of post game coverage on the most recent match against Sunderland. Let’s be real, you guys didn’t want to read about it just as much as I didn’t want to write about it however please see below the draft that didn’t make the blog

“Not good”

Moving on……

Southampton Vs Leicester is arguably the marque game in the Championship this season. Two sides that within the last decade had been playing European football now languishing in the English second tier. Not surprising then that Sky Sports snapped up the opportunity to broadcast the match. A Friday night footballing aperitif.

While this may give Saints fans a harrowing flashback (I’m not going to mention THE scoreline don’t worry, Sky will do that enough anyway) this encounter pits two of the pre season favourites against one and other. Not only that it pits Martin Vs Maresca, the battle of the heavy possession ideologies.

Stylistically Southampton and Leicester are quite similar, both teams like to pass the ball - a lot. Sitting first and second respectively in the passing statistics for the Championship. In terms of average possession these sides sit top of the pile for that metric too.

The parallels continue away from the tiki taka desires strecting onto how both coaches operate structurally and the demands of certain players. Primarily RM and Maresca adopt a 4-3-3 shape utilising speedy, dribbley wide forwards to go 1v1 with defensive counterparts alongside No. 10s who disrupt defences to create goalscoring opportunities. 

Considering the kindred footballing philosophies, the players on Friday night have the opportunity to go mano a mano for the three points. Allowing us to witness top Championship talent battle it out.

Key examples of these gladiatorial duels between the sides are Samuel Edozie vs Stephy Mavididi and Adam Armstrong Vs Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall.

Firstly the two wingers (Edozie & Mavididi) typically operate from the left so while they will not collide with each another in the traditional sense - being on opposite sides of the pitch - the battle for superiority between the two will surely have a bearing on the result. 

Leading their sides in average carry distance, on average Edozie carries the ball 12.9m compared to 13.5m for Mavididi. Edozie (5) and Mavididi (8) lead their respective sides in shot ending carries however they have only scored once each in the opening 5 games. Mavididi does have one assist, in contrast Edozie has none.

The attacking returns not exactly setting the Championship alight but the underlying numbers here do match portray their managers desires. Both wingers are direct, dribbling at defenders causing havoc - a moment of silence please for the QPR defender Edozie left on his backside. 

Other players that profile similarly in their roles, thus destined to do battle, are Kiernan Dewsbury-HallI (KDH) & Adam Armstrong. Archetypal no. 10s, although Armstrong less so, playing between the midfield and defence lines. 

KDH and Armstrong lead their sides for goal involvement. 2 goals + 1 assist for KDH compared to 4 goals + 1 Assist for Armstrong. The Leicester City man featuring in 42.8% of their goals this season meanwhile Armstrong involved in 50% of total goals for the Saints.

The heavy involvement of these two highlights the importance their respective managers place on the No. 10. 

*It is noteworthy that Edozie and Armstrong are the only two attacking players to have started every league game for Southampton this season. The numbers demonstrating the two operate exactly as RM instructs, retaining their starting XI places

For the Championship this match is Goliath Vs Goliath - relative to the rest of the league. Yet with such similarities between the side’s stylistically and functionally the eventual winner may come down to who outperforms their counterpart on the night. Somewhat amusing that for such a high profile clash a simple “My *blank* is better than yours” could decide the outcome.

Scoring & Then Conceding - A Southampton Story

 

You’re never more vulnerable defensively than just after you score’ - Southampton are the epitome of this age old adage this season having conceded within 5 minutes of scoring in three of their four Championship games this season. 

Speaking to BBC radio Solent RM commented on this issue, “The mentality when score is nowhere near good enough, we need to address that.” Undoubtedly this needs addressing as while you can dress up the statistic as 3/4 games the currently reality is this has occurred in 3 consecutive matches. Impressively a more damning commentary on already bleak events.

What though are the contributing factors as to why Southampton have succumbed to this? Is it a simple, if frustrating, case of bad luck? Or is the issue down to the current turbulence in team selection?

An unsettled XI

RM has thus far been unable to field the same starting XI for matches this season mostly due to outgoing transfers or injuries. Seven players have started every league game so far; Bazunu, KWP, Stephens, Bednarek, Manning, Edozie & Adam Armstrong. Positionally that’s the back five and two of the attacking front three. Notably of those seven none are midfielders, albeit Armstrong deputised in midfield against Plymouth.

Two of the quick fire equalisers conceded were relative ‘pot shots’ from distance - Sara for Norwich and Colback for QPR - both of whom were in front of Southampton’s defence when shooting. 

Typically this an area of the pitch where a ‘No.6’ would be positioned however Saints have struggled for a consistent presence in this area. Firstly as a result of the departing JWP, in the Norwich game Smallbone found himself to be the lone pivot in a midfield comprising of Alcaraz, Stu and himself. Furthermore (against QPR) an enforced in-game personnel switch - Jack Stephens injury in the 25th minute - Shea Charles dropped into CB and Downes handed his debut sitting as a 6 again alongside Charly and Stu.

QPR scoring in the 32nd minute.

Perhaps a lack of continuity in defensive midfield is the reason for these goals, alternatively there’s a school of thought that a midfield trio including Armstrong and Alcaraz doesn’t offer enough defensive stability. With Sunderland away up next, one of the more intimidating away grounds, it will be interesting to see if RM opts for a midfield with either Armstrong OR Alcaraz lining up with Downes and Charles to offer that defensive structure.

*For those wondering, Mason Holgate replaces Stephens in defence with the stated midfield structure.

Simply just bad luck

The numbers and the statistics don’t lie however there is a very valid notion that this occurrence could simply be a series of unfortunate events and just bad luck.

Now I’m not blaming Lemony Snicket but for this specific situation to occur in three consecutive fixtures is unfortunate, particularly when looking at the goals themselves.

As mentioned earlier both Sara’s & Colback’s strikes were from outside the box through a sea of bodies. Despite scoring these chances generated minimal xG; 0.06 for Sara and 0.02 for Colback. Based on this Southampton can feel hard done by to concede in these instances.

Lady luck may not have had a role in Ryan Hardie’s finish for Plymouth’s equaliser however Saints can feel aggrieved regarding a moment in the build up. Ryan Manning rushing out to meet Plymouth forward Morgan Whittaker on the byline, slipping just as Whittaker takes his first touch. This affords Whittaker the freedom of the right hand channel allowing him to drive toward the box before picking out Hardie with a driven cross. 

Had Manning managed to stay on his feet in this instance it’s likely the goal wouldn’t have happened. Manning won 50% (3/6) of his ground duels against Plymouth so it’s no guarantee the Irish international would have won the ball back immediately however by halting Whitaker’s progress Edozie should have been able to help double up on the Plymouth attacker.

Ultimately despite conceding these goals Southampton are yet to lose in the Championship. As RM said to BBC Radio Solent “We are winning while learning and winning while building” and that’s an important takeaway. Southampton are not quite the finished article, not quite the final evolution of RM-Ball and hopefully we can begin to separate ourselves from the aforementioned adage starting against Sunderland on Saturday.