Is it too simple to blame Downes’ absence for 6 goals in 2 games?

 

Flynn Downes was substituted in the 33rd minute against Huddersfield and since then Southampton have conceded 6 goals in the 1.5ish matches without him. 

Before diving too deep into the titular question I am aware Southampton are a far better side with Downes in the XI this article simply serves to identify whether his specific absence is the cause of the leaky nature of the last two games. 

Let’s take a look at the goals.

Goal 1 - Sorba Thomas 

Lots of Saints fans online shared their admiration for Huddersfield’s performance - particularly in the first half - against Southampton citing their Terriers aggressive press as impressive. Yet, none of their three goals came as a direct result of this. 

Two quick fire switches of play resulted in the first goal. Looking at the images above Sorba Thomas, who would eventually score, originally plays a cross field pass from one touch line to the other and one pass later the ball was switched again from left to right for Thomas to smash home. 

Southampton’s rest defence focuses on maintaining distances between players not allowing obvious central gaps for attackers. As the ball was rapidly switched the back line did maintain their distances amongst themselves however this left a big space on the outside of Manning that Thomas was able to utilise.

Space outside of the fullback is not a new problem for Saints but I’d say it doesn’t fall under Downes remit necessarily. 

Other factors 1-0 Downes would’ve fixed it

Goal 2 - David Kasumu

This was an old school goal. Lump it to the target man, win the flick on, claim the second ball & drive towards the goal. Classic Championship.

Looking at the image above the positioning of the three central midfielders; Armstrong, Rothwell and Smallbone, is concerning. All 3 are dragged towards the ball leaving no anchor in front of the midfield. Downes has been a master of anchoring the midfield this season you’d expect he may have read the situation different and dropped accordingly to support the defence 

Other factors 1-1 Downes would’ve fixed it

Goal 3 - Alex Matos

Easily the most unfortunate goal conceded in the last two games. This goal posted a xG of 0.02 even less than Rothwell’s stunner (0.05) highlighting how unlucky this goal was.

At the time of the shot being taken by Matos he was adequately covered with no option other than to take a pot shot. Had Downes had been there would it have been different? Possibly not given how ludicrous the goal was

Other factors 2-1 Downes would’ve sorted it

Goal 4 - Sam Bell

The crossbar denied Edozie from opening the scoring, mere millimetres stood between Brooks and his first Southampton goal. To further emphasise the importance of fine margins in football a slightly mistimed interception from Smallbone allowed Mehmeti in behind the defence to cross for Bell to open the scoring.

The goal originates from a Bristol City throw in deep down Southampton’s left side, Manning is beaten by Mehmeti before the unfortunate touch from Smallbone. Potentially you can look at space outside the fullback again however given proximity to the touch line probably not. It’s hard to decide if Downes prescience would’ve had any impact for this goal but we’ll chalk it up as an other factor.

Other factors 3-1 Downes would’ve fixed it

Goal 5 - Rob Dickie

Southampton have rarely conceded from set pieces this season, sadly against the Robins we did. A really apathetic defence of the box allowed Bristol City defender Rob Dickie to out jump Will Smallbone to head in from close range.

Ability to win aerial duels are not a quality Southamptons midfield possesses. Flynn Downes has won 28.8% of his aerial duels with his midfield counterpart Smallbone winning even less, 22.2%. Shea Charles leads the midfielders with 42.9%, certainly a concern that none of the more defensive minded midfield’s average winning 50% aerial duels.

Statistically you can argue Downes would’ve been better suited to defend the set piece than Smallbone so we’ll chuck this one in the Downes column, dubiously.

Other factors 3-2 Downes would’ve fixed it

Goal 6 - Harry Cornick

Let’s take a look at the image below. It’s the final one I promise.

Firstly let’s consider the gamestate, Southampton we’re desperately seeking a goal and had effectively gone 4-2-4 with Kamaldeen, Mara, Armstrong & Fraser all on the pitch. As the ball is turned over 6 Saints players are in front of the ball leaving the defence massively exposed. One pass down the right channel given Ross McCrorie acres of space to pick out Cornick to sweep home and rubber stamp the end of the unbeaten run.

A goal scored in transition. These moments happen to be when Downes is at his best defensively, breaking up counter attacks. Although given the already mentioned game state it’s unlikely Downes would’ve been on the pitch at this point as Saints pushed for a way back in.

Given we’ve covered six goals in this piece I’ll be generous and chalk this one up as a potential point for both categories.

Full time 4-3, in favour of other factors. A one ‘point’ margin though suggests maybe it’s not too simple to suggest the absence of Downes resulted in the leaky defence. Out of 6 goals conceded there’s solid arguments that Flynn could’ve offered a defensive solution to problems. A further talking point that isn’t necessarily obvious with each goal is the frequency to which Smallbone’s name popped up. Not in an overly detrimental way towards the Irish midfielder but the game and a half have highlighted the drop off in the no. 6 position within the squad.

ITC Transfer Special - Part 2

 

Previously wingers were the buzz word. Now it’s the turn of a more central forward position. 

Southampton have scored the third most goals in the league (48) so scoring goals isn’t necessarily a glaring issue. This being said summer signing Ross Stewart is likely out for the season and the situation surrounding Che Adams appears to be unclear. The latter out of contract in the summer. Saints may be tempted to cash in should the right offer come along although RM has openly expressed his desire for Adams to stay.

Should a move materialise for Che it would leave Mara as the next and sole senior striker option. Mara, too, subject to speculation albeit somewhat dubious given the stature of clubs rumoured to be interested - Marseille & Lille. As it stands it would seem unlikely Southampton would gamble and bring in a striker in addition to Adarma, Che & Mara simply due to potential FFP repercussions should promotion not be achieved. Therefore it seems likely a move in this position is dependent on external factors like outgoings.

Let’s say one of Adams or Mara leaves, what’s the play?

The nostalgia pick would be Danny Ings. Prior to Armstrong’s form this season Ings was by far and away Southampton’s most prolific striker recently, bagging 22 goals in the 19/20 Premier League season. Now at West Ham, Ings is perennially part of the matchday squad  for the Hammers but seldom is he in the starting XI. Very much the bridesmaid not the bride. 

Worth noting in the seasons since leaving Southampton Ings has failed to reach double digits for goals and while he may not be a prominent figure in the West Ham team they are not blessed in the striking department. After Michael Antonio they don’t have a natural striker apart from Ings. His age too would make a deal unlikely. He doesn’t fit with the age profile of previous signings made in the Sport Republic era. Based on track record you’d imagine Saints to recruit a younger player for this position perhaps looking towards sell on value. Sadly it would seem unlikely for a reunion this January. 

A transfer target perhaps more realistic is Aberdeen’s Bojan Miovski. A transfer in the Ryan Manning mould.

Hear me out, Manning was brought in in part due to his ties to RM from Swansea. Darren Mowbray’s (Southampton Head of Recruitment) former club, Aberdeen. Could it be another 2 + 2 = 4 kind of deal?

That’s not to say Miovski doesn’t have merits of his own. The Macedonian international has 9 goals in 18 games for Aberdeen and 101 touches in the opposition box which is useful given the majority of Southampton’s goals have come from inside the penalty area. At 24 Miovski would fit the Sport Republic profile, a player coming into their prime rather than at the twilight of their career. He’s an archetypal number 9 could prove a useful addition.

Another name the rumour mill has stirred up is Hearts striker Lawrence Shankland. The prospect of Shankland & St Mary’s offers a rich tapestry of comedic headlines and puns but whimsy aside, the Scottish forward is having an excellent season with 13 goals in 21 appearances. 

Another SPL player, Mr Mowbray we see you.

As previously alluded to Southampton’s attacking play typically results in chances within the realm of the 18 yard box. Shankland has 141 touches in the opposition box this season, in the current Southampton squad only Adam Armstrong has more. His goal map also suggests he would thrive in such situations, 11/13 goals coming from this area of the pitch.

Should this supposed interest in Shankland turn into something serious he would join a rich history of players that have represented Hearts and Southampton; Anti Niemi, Rudi Skácel, Neil McCann & Ricardo Fuller. Indeed Fuller won Championship Player of the Month for April in 2006 after 6 goals in 6 games. 

There you go Lawrence there’s a challenge for you, try emulate that.

A move in the striker department does appear outgoing dependent. With Mara and Adams both around there isn’t necessarily room for an addition at this point. Based on the early rumours it seems the Head of Recruitment is leaning towards players from a market he’s familiar with. Not necessarily a bad thing, Russell Martin has used his connections for deals with Downes, Manning & Fraser and they’ve worked out so far. 

ITC Transfer Special - Part 1

 

It’s here. The blog no one asked for but hopefully some of you wanted it. It’s the In The Channel Transfer Special. 

Southampton, as a result of their 18 game unbeaten run, have put themselves in a great position with regard to the automatic promotion race. 10/12 points from the festive period has reduced the gap to 2nd place Ipswich, now only 3 points. In the last promotion out of the Championship Southampton signed Billy Sharp in the January window. The striker scored 9 goals in 15 games - including a brace against Portsmouth - cementing his place in Southampton folklore to help Saints get over the line for promotion.

The question is, what do Southampton do this time around?

*Note - This is a two part series keep your eyes peeled for the next instalment.

 

Losing Nathan Tella in August was a blow particularly given that no replacement came in. Considering the injuries to Kamaldeen Sulemana & Samuel Edozie, Southampton look light in the wide forward positions. Of course there’s still Ryan Fraser however he’s been most impactful from the bench. After him there’s Sam Amo-Ameyaw however RM thus far has been reluctant to give the youngster minutes, only 164 in all competitions.

January is an excellent opportunity to embolden the squad in this position but the question is who?

The first few names to emerge in the rumour mill are Manuel Benson & David Brooks. Both fit the bill in terms of an attacking addition to the squad. 

Benson had 11 goals & 3 assists for Burnley last season as they claimed the Championship title. Looking at his goal map it’s heavily weighted towards efforts from the top left of the penalty area, as you’d expect from a right winger

Sadly it appears Burnley are not too keen on doing business with the Saints. This seemingly driven by Southampton not releasing Tella for less than their asking price.

An astounding level of pettiness.

David Brooks appears to be out of favour at Bournemouth. The Welshman has only played 258 minutes in the Premier League for the Cherries meaning his sample size for stats is limited however in his brief cameos he’s averages 3.57 shots per 90. That’s higher than top scorer Adam Armstrong, 2.06. Furthermore when looking at the accuracy of these efforts, shots on target per 90, Brooks trumps Armstrong again, 1.79 vs 1.29.

Small sample size aside this does suggest Brooks could provide a threat going forward.

Another name loosely linked is Liverpool’s Fabio Carvalho. The Portuguese winger is returning to England after an unsuccessful spell at RB Leipzig perhaps the drop back to the Championship could be beneficial for both parties. Carvalho previously amassing 18 goal contributions for Fulham in the 21/22 Championship campaign.

The ITC ideal signing would be Jonathan Rowe from Norwich. 10 goals from just 46 shots this season, Rowe is one of the standout players in the division this season. Sadly it’s unlikely Norwich would part ways with him halfway through the season. Certainly worth a look in the summer.

A winger is arguably the most obvious addition this window however there’s still other questions to be answered regarding a striker and in central midfield.

Questions to be answered tomorrow…..

Has the lack of Carabao Cup action been beneficial to Southampton?

 

Last season was awful. Arguably the only bright spark was the Carabao Cup run. Semi finalists and an exceptional victory over the soon to be treble winners Manchester City. A win so incredible it earned the now unemployed Nathan Jones a Coaching Masterclass video on YouTube.

Success in the competition this season however was none existent. Saints fans were treated to an extra round, having not featured in the First Round since 2011, unfortunately the campaign went no further as Southampton lost 3-1 at League Two Gillingham.

Has this actually been a blessing in disguise? Given the frequent Saturday/Tuesday nature of the Championship, has the absence of a domestic cup competition been beneficial to Southampton?

Saints fell at the first hurdle on August 9th, the Second Round was played W/C 28th August. Southampton were unbeaten in their first four league games with a trip to Sunderland to come. The lack of a midweek match should have allowed Southampton the chance to cope with the final week of the transfer window and fully prepare themselves for the longest away trip of the season.

Southampton went on to be battered 5-0 at the Stadium of Light.

In reality there’s no connection between the Carabao Cup exit and the heavy defeat. There were far more mitigating factors that led to this loss; the uncertainty caused by the transfer window closing, conceding inside one minute, Jack Stephens injury combined with Taylor Harwood-Bellis not ready to make his debut & who could forget Flynn Downes still recovering from food poisoning.

With regard to this gameweek you can’t really answer the titular question however when you take a look at the 3rd round the importance of free time for the Saints really comes into play.

Matches in the 3rd round took place W/C 25th September. After 3 defeats in an 8 day period - Leicester, Ipswich & Middlesbrough - Southampton found themselves with a free midweek before a daunting home clash with Leeds United on the horizon.

Southampton went on to beat Leeds 3-1.

This is where Southampton’s absence from this competition begins to have a positive impact. Against Leeds Russell Martin would, for the first time in the season, start Kamaldeen, A. Armstrong & Alcaraz implementing an asymmetrical attacking system that allowed Kamaldeen to stay wide left while KWP marauded down the right as Armstrong cut in. This tactical switch by RM was too much for Leeds and demonstrated an adaptability to his managerial style. The free time after the Middlesbrough defeat certainly helped Southampton settle down and find their levels.

This victory over Leeds kickstarted Southampton’s upturn in form and by the time the Fourth Round rolled around (W/C 30th October) Saints were 6 unbeaten. A trip to Millwall to come.

There’s a school of thought that when you’re winning you just want the games to keep coming, to carry on the hot streak. The Championship schedule provides the quick fire nature of fixtures anyway without adding extras to the calendar. Prior to the W/C 30th October Southampton had played a 3 game week securing 7/9 points available. A rest was needed.

Southampton beat Millwall 1-0. Again utilising the free midweek and continuing the unbeaten run.

This week sees the competition reach the Quarter Final stage. Would Saints have even made it this far? Who knows. However it does fall at a critical point in the Championship calendar so let’s take a look anyway.

The only Championship team remaining is Middlesbrough, ironically they came through the bracket via a route Southampton were eliminated from. I’ll show my working to clarify this.

Gillingham beat Southampton, Luton beat Gillingham, Exeter beat Luton & Middlesbrough beat Exeter. A tenuous link nevertheless in some parallel universe Southampton are the side in the Quarter finals. 

With an upcoming hectic festive period of fixtures - 4 games in 10 days - a domestic cup Quarter Final would be a truly unnecessary distraction. Southampton are no longer a Premier League side able to view this competition as a chance of silverware, instead the league has to be priority number one. A full week between Blackburn and QPR matches should be perfect for rest/recovery.

At the time the defeat to Gillingham was tough to take given the respective divisions, ultimately it was a defeat that would always need hindsight to make sense of it. Aside from a horror show against Sunderland the other ‘free weeks’ in the calendar have led to victories. Another win at QPR this Saturday would help this narrative.