ITC Transfer Special - Part 2

 

Previously wingers were the buzz word. Now it’s the turn of a more central forward position. 

Southampton have scored the third most goals in the league (48) so scoring goals isn’t necessarily a glaring issue. This being said summer signing Ross Stewart is likely out for the season and the situation surrounding Che Adams appears to be unclear. The latter out of contract in the summer. Saints may be tempted to cash in should the right offer come along although RM has openly expressed his desire for Adams to stay.

Should a move materialise for Che it would leave Mara as the next and sole senior striker option. Mara, too, subject to speculation albeit somewhat dubious given the stature of clubs rumoured to be interested - Marseille & Lille. As it stands it would seem unlikely Southampton would gamble and bring in a striker in addition to Adarma, Che & Mara simply due to potential FFP repercussions should promotion not be achieved. Therefore it seems likely a move in this position is dependent on external factors like outgoings.

Let’s say one of Adams or Mara leaves, what’s the play?

The nostalgia pick would be Danny Ings. Prior to Armstrong’s form this season Ings was by far and away Southampton’s most prolific striker recently, bagging 22 goals in the 19/20 Premier League season. Now at West Ham, Ings is perennially part of the matchday squad  for the Hammers but seldom is he in the starting XI. Very much the bridesmaid not the bride. 

Worth noting in the seasons since leaving Southampton Ings has failed to reach double digits for goals and while he may not be a prominent figure in the West Ham team they are not blessed in the striking department. After Michael Antonio they don’t have a natural striker apart from Ings. His age too would make a deal unlikely. He doesn’t fit with the age profile of previous signings made in the Sport Republic era. Based on track record you’d imagine Saints to recruit a younger player for this position perhaps looking towards sell on value. Sadly it would seem unlikely for a reunion this January. 

A transfer target perhaps more realistic is Aberdeen’s Bojan Miovski. A transfer in the Ryan Manning mould.

Hear me out, Manning was brought in in part due to his ties to RM from Swansea. Darren Mowbray’s (Southampton Head of Recruitment) former club, Aberdeen. Could it be another 2 + 2 = 4 kind of deal?

That’s not to say Miovski doesn’t have merits of his own. The Macedonian international has 9 goals in 18 games for Aberdeen and 101 touches in the opposition box which is useful given the majority of Southampton’s goals have come from inside the penalty area. At 24 Miovski would fit the Sport Republic profile, a player coming into their prime rather than at the twilight of their career. He’s an archetypal number 9 could prove a useful addition.

Another name the rumour mill has stirred up is Hearts striker Lawrence Shankland. The prospect of Shankland & St Mary’s offers a rich tapestry of comedic headlines and puns but whimsy aside, the Scottish forward is having an excellent season with 13 goals in 21 appearances. 

Another SPL player, Mr Mowbray we see you.

As previously alluded to Southampton’s attacking play typically results in chances within the realm of the 18 yard box. Shankland has 141 touches in the opposition box this season, in the current Southampton squad only Adam Armstrong has more. His goal map also suggests he would thrive in such situations, 11/13 goals coming from this area of the pitch.

Should this supposed interest in Shankland turn into something serious he would join a rich history of players that have represented Hearts and Southampton; Anti Niemi, Rudi Skácel, Neil McCann & Ricardo Fuller. Indeed Fuller won Championship Player of the Month for April in 2006 after 6 goals in 6 games. 

There you go Lawrence there’s a challenge for you, try emulate that.

A move in the striker department does appear outgoing dependent. With Mara and Adams both around there isn’t necessarily room for an addition at this point. Based on the early rumours it seems the Head of Recruitment is leaning towards players from a market he’s familiar with. Not necessarily a bad thing, Russell Martin has used his connections for deals with Downes, Manning & Fraser and they’ve worked out so far. 

ITC Transfer Special - Part 1

 

It’s here. The blog no one asked for but hopefully some of you wanted it. It’s the In The Channel Transfer Special. 

Southampton, as a result of their 18 game unbeaten run, have put themselves in a great position with regard to the automatic promotion race. 10/12 points from the festive period has reduced the gap to 2nd place Ipswich, now only 3 points. In the last promotion out of the Championship Southampton signed Billy Sharp in the January window. The striker scored 9 goals in 15 games - including a brace against Portsmouth - cementing his place in Southampton folklore to help Saints get over the line for promotion.

The question is, what do Southampton do this time around?

*Note - This is a two part series keep your eyes peeled for the next instalment.

 

Losing Nathan Tella in August was a blow particularly given that no replacement came in. Considering the injuries to Kamaldeen Sulemana & Samuel Edozie, Southampton look light in the wide forward positions. Of course there’s still Ryan Fraser however he’s been most impactful from the bench. After him there’s Sam Amo-Ameyaw however RM thus far has been reluctant to give the youngster minutes, only 164 in all competitions.

January is an excellent opportunity to embolden the squad in this position but the question is who?

The first few names to emerge in the rumour mill are Manuel Benson & David Brooks. Both fit the bill in terms of an attacking addition to the squad. 

Benson had 11 goals & 3 assists for Burnley last season as they claimed the Championship title. Looking at his goal map it’s heavily weighted towards efforts from the top left of the penalty area, as you’d expect from a right winger

Sadly it appears Burnley are not too keen on doing business with the Saints. This seemingly driven by Southampton not releasing Tella for less than their asking price.

An astounding level of pettiness.

David Brooks appears to be out of favour at Bournemouth. The Welshman has only played 258 minutes in the Premier League for the Cherries meaning his sample size for stats is limited however in his brief cameos he’s averages 3.57 shots per 90. That’s higher than top scorer Adam Armstrong, 2.06. Furthermore when looking at the accuracy of these efforts, shots on target per 90, Brooks trumps Armstrong again, 1.79 vs 1.29.

Small sample size aside this does suggest Brooks could provide a threat going forward.

Another name loosely linked is Liverpool’s Fabio Carvalho. The Portuguese winger is returning to England after an unsuccessful spell at RB Leipzig perhaps the drop back to the Championship could be beneficial for both parties. Carvalho previously amassing 18 goal contributions for Fulham in the 21/22 Championship campaign.

The ITC ideal signing would be Jonathan Rowe from Norwich. 10 goals from just 46 shots this season, Rowe is one of the standout players in the division this season. Sadly it’s unlikely Norwich would part ways with him halfway through the season. Certainly worth a look in the summer.

A winger is arguably the most obvious addition this window however there’s still other questions to be answered regarding a striker and in central midfield.

Questions to be answered tomorrow…..

Has the lack of Carabao Cup action been beneficial to Southampton?

 

Last season was awful. Arguably the only bright spark was the Carabao Cup run. Semi finalists and an exceptional victory over the soon to be treble winners Manchester City. A win so incredible it earned the now unemployed Nathan Jones a Coaching Masterclass video on YouTube.

Success in the competition this season however was none existent. Saints fans were treated to an extra round, having not featured in the First Round since 2011, unfortunately the campaign went no further as Southampton lost 3-1 at League Two Gillingham.

Has this actually been a blessing in disguise? Given the frequent Saturday/Tuesday nature of the Championship, has the absence of a domestic cup competition been beneficial to Southampton?

Saints fell at the first hurdle on August 9th, the Second Round was played W/C 28th August. Southampton were unbeaten in their first four league games with a trip to Sunderland to come. The lack of a midweek match should have allowed Southampton the chance to cope with the final week of the transfer window and fully prepare themselves for the longest away trip of the season.

Southampton went on to be battered 5-0 at the Stadium of Light.

In reality there’s no connection between the Carabao Cup exit and the heavy defeat. There were far more mitigating factors that led to this loss; the uncertainty caused by the transfer window closing, conceding inside one minute, Jack Stephens injury combined with Taylor Harwood-Bellis not ready to make his debut & who could forget Flynn Downes still recovering from food poisoning.

With regard to this gameweek you can’t really answer the titular question however when you take a look at the 3rd round the importance of free time for the Saints really comes into play.

Matches in the 3rd round took place W/C 25th September. After 3 defeats in an 8 day period - Leicester, Ipswich & Middlesbrough - Southampton found themselves with a free midweek before a daunting home clash with Leeds United on the horizon.

Southampton went on to beat Leeds 3-1.

This is where Southampton’s absence from this competition begins to have a positive impact. Against Leeds Russell Martin would, for the first time in the season, start Kamaldeen, A. Armstrong & Alcaraz implementing an asymmetrical attacking system that allowed Kamaldeen to stay wide left while KWP marauded down the right as Armstrong cut in. This tactical switch by RM was too much for Leeds and demonstrated an adaptability to his managerial style. The free time after the Middlesbrough defeat certainly helped Southampton settle down and find their levels.

This victory over Leeds kickstarted Southampton’s upturn in form and by the time the Fourth Round rolled around (W/C 30th October) Saints were 6 unbeaten. A trip to Millwall to come.

There’s a school of thought that when you’re winning you just want the games to keep coming, to carry on the hot streak. The Championship schedule provides the quick fire nature of fixtures anyway without adding extras to the calendar. Prior to the W/C 30th October Southampton had played a 3 game week securing 7/9 points available. A rest was needed.

Southampton beat Millwall 1-0. Again utilising the free midweek and continuing the unbeaten run.

This week sees the competition reach the Quarter Final stage. Would Saints have even made it this far? Who knows. However it does fall at a critical point in the Championship calendar so let’s take a look anyway.

The only Championship team remaining is Middlesbrough, ironically they came through the bracket via a route Southampton were eliminated from. I’ll show my working to clarify this.

Gillingham beat Southampton, Luton beat Gillingham, Exeter beat Luton & Middlesbrough beat Exeter. A tenuous link nevertheless in some parallel universe Southampton are the side in the Quarter finals. 

With an upcoming hectic festive period of fixtures - 4 games in 10 days - a domestic cup Quarter Final would be a truly unnecessary distraction. Southampton are no longer a Premier League side able to view this competition as a chance of silverware, instead the league has to be priority number one. A full week between Blackburn and QPR matches should be perfect for rest/recovery.

At the time the defeat to Gillingham was tough to take given the respective divisions, ultimately it was a defeat that would always need hindsight to make sense of it. Aside from a horror show against Sunderland the other ‘free weeks’ in the calendar have led to victories. Another win at QPR this Saturday would help this narrative.

Watch out for the yellows against the Sky Blues

 

Southampton are no strangers to discipline related suspensions this season. Ryan Manning & Jan Bednerak have both missed a match this season as a result of an accumulation of yellow cards. Thankfully the pair missed separate matches with Manning ruled out of Preston North End (A) and Bednerak missed the visit of West Bromwich Albion at St Mary’s. 

Five yellows will result in a one game suspension as it stands, going into the clash with Coventry City, four players are just one booking away from this; Adam Armstrong, Shea Charles, Flynn Downes & Will Smallbone. Theoretically four first team players could be ruled out of Saturday’s clash with Blackburn Rovers. How could this affect Southampton?

An Adam Armstrong suspension would probably raise most alarm bells from a fan’s perspective. He’s top scorer with 12 goals in 20 matches as well as being Southampton’s top assister with 5. Undoubtedly he has been crucial this campaign and would be sorely missed particularly against a Blackburn side that are the fifth highest scoring team in the Championship with 34 goals this season. 

For reference Southampton have scored 32.

After Armstrong the next highest scorer is Adams (4) who has only netted once since August. The Scot is the natural striker replacement should a suspension occur however with the absence of Kamaldeen Sulemana due to injury, Adams has started the last two games so another alternative would be needed somewhere else in attack. 

In terms of a cohesive attacking system RM seemingly has two go to set ups. The standard front three that had great success with Kamaldeen keeping wide left dribbling at defenders while the central and right sided attackers - often Armstrong & Alcaraz - had the freedom to roam allowing KWP to advance forward into the right channel. The other set up featured two central strikers (Armstrong & Adams) with Charly Alcaraz operating as an archetypal ‘No. 10’ behind them.

Would RM persevere with two strikers? Utilising Mara alongside Adams. This would feel unlikely as that would leave no natural striker option on the bench. Reverting to the front three could prove the most optimal approach for a one off game. Adams central, Alcaraz drifting in from the right, leaving the wide left slot available for an Edozie or Fraser type.

As a singular absentee Armstrong would seemingly have the greatest impact however with the other three players at risk being central midfielders this will pose a completely different selection dilemma.

The Downes-Smallbone axis has been a key feature of Southampton’s success in their unbeaten run. The absence of both noticeable against Watford. A stubbornness was missing in the middle of the park. RM has made some rather abstract midfield selections at times this season however when these two and Charles aren’t available there’s a distinct lack of a defensive midfield option.  

A midfield of Aribo, Alcaraz & Stu Armstrong would be great to watch however possibly not the most defensively sound. It will be interesting to see the minutes given to these three midfield players in the Coventry match should there be a conscious effort to afford a crippling suspension hit.

Southampton rank second in the division for yellow cards, 53. Working out at 2.65 bookings per match the likelihood is someone will be booked against Coventry. It’s hardly that Southampton are an overly ‘dirty’ side. They only commit 10.1 fouls per 90, which ranks 16th out of the 24. Seemingly, in midfield particular, the success rate of their tackles lends to volume of yellow cards. Downes: 60%, Smallbone: 62.5% & Charles: 47.6%, bizarrely Stu Armstrong - a traditionally more advanced midfield player - has the best tackle success rate out of the midfield contingent at 68.8%.

A couple of clumsy tackles tonight against Coventry could cause some serious selection headaches. Hopefully post match this article is sheer conjecture and not forward planning for a quartet of suspensions.

Is there such a thing as too much possession?

 

Southampton have had over 75% possession in three games this season and only won one of those - away to Sheffield Wednesday. The other two matches both ending 1-1. Rotherham at St Mary’s and most recently Huddersfield away. 

When bordering on total dominance of the football, why is it Southampton can’t seem to get over the line? Is there a thing as too much possession?

Let’s take a look.

Post match Russell Martin said “It's really similar to the Rotherham game so maybe the players felt this is nice, but it is never easy. Our mentality has cost us two points.” In both matches Southampton dominated the shot count as well as ball possession. Mustering 12 shots in the first half against both sides. In contrast Rotherham and Huddersfield managed 1 shot each in the first half of their respective games. Despite the shot dominance Southampton only scored once in the first half of both games failing to turn the screw and be ruthless. That feeling of “nice” on the pitch causing complacency and that’s the mentality RM refers to. Sadly it’s becoming an all too familiar story this season.

Southampton have only secured a two goal lead twice this season, Leeds and Birmingham. Unsurprisingly these are two of the more convincing wins this season. Arguably making it more frustrating that Southampton are able to turn the screw against a team of Leeds quality but have struggled against supposed lesser sides. Returning to the ideas of complacency setting in.

The above shows the momentum graph vs Huddersfield. These graphs are not only good for checking when to cash out on your bets, they also provide an accurate reflection of the game state. As seen the blue is hardly present in the first half yet the second shows sustain periods of Huddersfield momentum. A visual aid highlighting Saints lack of ruthlessness.

Let’s park the mentality element briefly. Southampton have won 7 games by a single goal margin, which in itself takes a certain type of mentality. So what else could have caused these two draws? When Southampton were so ball dominant on both occasions.

The short answer is Saints, frustratingly,  concede from low quality chances. The equalising goals in both instances were not neatly carved out chances. One was a lob from 25 yards out and the other was an in-swinging cross that evaded everyone before nestling into the far side netting. Both shots generated a xG of 0.01.

In laymen’s terms these chances are scored once in every 100 efforts. 

Not to get all ‘OPTA Analyst’ on everyone but xG value represents the likelihood of the ball going in at the moment the shot is taken so it doesn’t account for the accuracy of the shot itself. On the other hand xGOT (expected goals on target) refers to the likelihood of a goal given the original effort was in fact on target. I emphasise the difference primarily to provide a different value more reflective on the quality of the goals conceded by Saints. Ben Jackson’s goal generated a xGOT of 0.58, considering Adam Armstrong’s opener posted 0.93 xGOT it was a relatively low quality chance for Huddersfield.

The real damming implementation of this metric is Jordan Hugil’s lob. An xGOT of 0.11 meaning even with the effort being on target the likelihood of a goal was 1 in 10. 

Low quality chances or fluke goals are scored frequently throughout the Football League. Therefore it’s inevitable that at some point Saints will be on the receiving end of one. Although if you’re only leading by one goal the margin for error is smaller, you cannot afford to conceded silly goals.

Succumbing to these type of chances wouldn’t be an issue had Saints been more ruthless in their approach. After Adam Armstrong the next highest scoring forward is Che Adams (3) who hasn’t scored since August. Forward players need to start contributing more with goals to help establish a cutting edge.

The possession number is the statistic that stands out however I don’t think it’s a case of ‘too much.’ Simply put Southampton are not clinical enough throughout matches. The chances, as shown by the shot counts, are there the issue is taking them. Having rickety moments doesn’t help either but if you can establish a substantial lead it doesn’t matter