Where is the exodus?

 Relegated Premier League teams are the metaphorical babies which candy is taken from.  Players yearning for the bright lights of the top flight. 

Leicester have thus far lost James Maddison & Harvey Barnes, who together scored 23 goals last season. Leeds also losing striker Rodrigo, 13 goals last season, alongside midfielders Brendan Aaronson and Marc Roca. Whereas, at time of writing, Southampton have lost Mislav Orsic & Ibrahima Diallo, who contributed 0 goals last season.

As it stands we still have our candy.

Of course there is still plenty of time left in the transfer window, Russell Martin himself admitting some players might start the season with us before moving on later in the window. How come it hasn’t happened already though?

It may be the red & white tinted glasses but most fans will have expected certain players (JWP, KWP & Lavia etc) to be shoe ins for an immediate Premier League return, which hasn’t materialised.

Saints certainly have the supply of players to be sold but the demand is lacking.

Unlike Maddison and Barnes there isn’t an immediate necessity for clubs eyeing Southampton players to pounce. Tottenham needed extra creativity, Maddison was bought, and Newcastle needed a replacement for Allan Saint-Maximin, Barnes was signed. With the exception of the transfer involving Declan Rice going to Arsenal, subsequently causing West Ham to need a central midfielder replacement - seemingly JWP - there isn’t that immediate demand for Southampton players. 

There is also a feeling that Southampton players aren’t necessarily target number one for buying clubs. Lyanco was set to join Besiktas only for the Turkish side to move the goalposts of the deal at the final moment. Having signed former Leicester City defender Daniel Amartey, Besiktas’ need for a central defender had gone. Leaving Lyanco and Southampton out to dry.

A potential Salisu deal looks to have run into similar difficulties. Fulham are chasing the Ghanaian defender but they are also after Calvin Bassey (Ajax) another left footed centre back. Buying clubs have options, Southampton players are among the options undoubtedly but it doesn’t appear as though the are first choice options

Generally there is a consensus that relegated players can be picked up for much less than had they retained their Premier League status. Often this leads to sides such as Southampton being lowballed when it comes to offers. 

Cases in point; Tino Livramento & Romeo Lavia. 

Newcastle’s offer of £12 million significantly lower than Southampton’s valuation. Liverpool opening offer of £37 million also short of the £50 million mark Southampton are looking to receive for the Belgium international.

Elements of lowballing are part and parcel of the course for transfer sagas, although would the opening gambit from these clubs had been so low if Southampton were still a Premier League side.

Southampton as it stands are under no immediate pressure to sell these players below their value. Neither Tino nor Lavia appear to be throwing toys out of the pram in an attempt to gain traction on a move. The caveat to this being though that usually the longer these rumble on, the greater the chance of a deal being reached. 

Lavia, arguably, is the more likely deal given the ageing profile of Liverpool’s midfield combined with the reported outgoings of Fabinho & Jordan Henderson. In contrast Newcastle may step away if it gets too rich for their liking as Burnley did with Nathan Tella this summer, interestingly opting for former Saint Nathan Redmond.

Supply but a lack of demand plus buying clubs keeping options open and lowball offers are all part of the reason Southampton hasn’t seen key players leave yet unlike their relegated counterparts.

At some point this will change, a domino will fall. Be that JWP to West Ham, Lavia to Liverpool or even Sulemana or Onuachu sealing moves away. 

Players will go, it will be interesting to compare the starting XI’s for the final game of the Premier League season to Sheffield Wednesday on August 4th but more importantly the XI that faces Sunderland (away) on September 2nd when we’ll finally know whether a full blown exodus has happened.

Russell-Ball: A first look

 

Pre season as a fan is odd. Are results important? 

Starting the Russell Martin era against Champions of Portugal, UCL quarter finalists, realistically the result is secondary. 

If we take that conclusion, then what does matter? Since December 2018 under Ralph Hassenhuttl, Southamptons style has been oriented towards out-of-possession strategies such as pressing triggers and rest defence. Now, as a Championship side, the appointment of Russell Martin is designed towards overhauling that style and implementing possession based football. The players demonstrating an understanding of new tactical concepts is important within pre season games.

Against Benfica, Southampton outlined their new identity.

The lineup for the behind closed doors encounter, at face value featured four recognised defenders, five players you’d consider as midfielders and a striker. 4-5-1? Not really. The positions of which certain players took up is more interesting to analyse than assigning a formation template. 

Inverted fullbacks are something you’d associated with the “elite” clubs, watching Southampton do such will definitely take some getting used to, previously full backs provided the width for Ralph’s sides. The first half saw a Guardiola style inversion - the left back stepping into midfield. Young Jayden Meghoma playing in this role in the first half. He, alongside JWP, forming the base of the box midfield that Martin likes to adopt. 

At top of the box, Alcaraz and Doyle. The Argentine left of centre, Doyle to the right. RM, in his coaching masterclass video, spoke about connections on the pitch, the “box” best demonstrates this, Alcaraz & Doyle dropping to exchange passes with Meghoma or JWP. Meghoma and Alcaraz in particular with 1-2s in the middle third of the pitch to help drive Southampton up the pitch. 

The front three; Dibling wide left, Amo-Ameyaw wide right & Mara through the middle. 

Behind this, Lyanco, Stephens and Bree. Bree on occasion advancing forward but not with the regularity KWP or Tino have done over the last few seasons. Lyanco & Stephens as the “2” in RMs preferred 2-3-2-3 shape, notably electing to hold onto the ball than rush a pass.

Despite losing the first half 2-0, the principles of RM-ball are there. A box midfield with the two “10s” - Alcaraz and Doyle - dropping deep to receive the ball and hopefully draw our opposition defenders. An inverted full back in Meghoma joining the midfield. Wingers staying wide and, in particular Sam Amo-Ameyaw, driving towards the box. The centre backs anchoring the structure, RM’s 2-3-2-3 visible to see.

Tactically this is what we saw throughout the match. Second half XI saw ten personnel changes - 21 used in total - yet tactically Saints persevered. Slight tweak in relation to the inverted full back. A Klopp style inversion with the right back, now Tino, adding to the midfield.

No further score for either side in the second half.

Aside from two blocked shots from outside the box - Adams & Tino - and Djenpro having a shot well smothered by the Benfica keeper after dropping a cross Saints offered little in the final third throughout the half and really the match in general. 

The key takeaway from this match was Saints are implementing a brand new style of play which as a fan will take some getting used to.

Following on from Benfica, Saints travelled to Turkey for the Sport Republic Classico against Goztepe. Both sides under the Sport Republic umbrella residing in the second division of their respective countries. A B-List multi club catalogue.

Cynically this friendly acts as a show piece for the ownership however the defensive low block utilised by the Turkish side is common in the Championship. A good test for Southampton. 

What won’t be common in the Championship is the heat experienced in Istanbul. Upwards of 30’C, doubt it will be that hot at Hillsborough in two weeks time.

The heat impacting the performance, Saints looking more lethargic understandably so. Structurally & tactically Southampton continued with their new approach.

The toothless criticism remains, outside the box JWP forcing a fine save out of Mateusz Liz (yes the very same) in the only attempt of note in the half for Southampton. Goztepe in contrast scoring as Bazunu beaten at his near post having anticipated a cross that turned into a shot.

Second half saw greater attacking intent from Southampton. Sekou Mara meandering into the penalty area, drawing a foul and a spot kick. 

The less said about the following penalty, the better.

The equaliser did though come minutes later. The first goal this pre season, of course, courtesy of Alcaraz. A left footed volley inside the area as the ball bounced around after Bednarek’s near post flick form Kamari Doyle’s corner. Alcaraz’s first goal not scored with his right foot for the club.

Sam Amo-Ameyaw with the final attempt of note for the Saints. Aribo swept the ball out wide for the teenager to drive at the Goztepe back line, after some quick feet and trickery he poked his shot agonisingly wide of the post. Amo-Ameyaw driving at defenders is exciting, it’s raw, it’s got that ‘va va boom’ about it. What could his season bring?

Full time 1-1. One loss and one draw so far this pre season with clashes against Reading, Bournemouth and AZ Alkmaar to go.

To return to the start, do we NEED to win any of these? Possibly yes for the sake of momentum and belief that winning can bring. Equally, no not necessarily. The understanding of the new style is far more important as results will follow on from this. 

Personally I’d much rather beat Sheffield Wednesday than Reading.

Fixtures - a not so deep dive

 

What a week! Nothing happens for awhile then bamn; Gotzepe friendly announcement, a new/old kit, a new manager & finally we’ve got the fixtures. Don’t want to brag to fans of Premier League clubs but we’ve now got 46 games so…..

The first of which is the Championship, nay the Football League curtain raiser. Sheffield Wednesday Vs Southampton Friday 4th August. There was a high chance our opening game would be televised as the 22/23 Championship opening weekend saw 2/3 relegated Premier League sides shown live. Hillsborough, under the lights! Could be in for a great spectacle - ideally let’s not collapse like Peterborough.

The Owls currently without a manager with Darren Moore leaving the club just days before the fixtures were announced, rumour mill has Steven Gerrard in the running for this one.

An interesting dynamic if it were to be Gerrard Vs Martin with their respective Rangers connections.

A lesser appreciated element of relegation is an extra round of the Carabao Cup. Southampton travel to Gillingham in the opening week. 

Southampton haven’t won a competitive fixture at St Mary’s since a 1-0 victory against Leicester on March 4th, the atmosphere at St Mary’s grew somber as the season concluded. Hopefully a result in this opening away match can spur on newfound optimism as we move onto the first home match in the Championship. 

August 12th, Norwich. A club Russell Martin spent nine years as a player amassing 290 appearances. Aside from the obvious (Swansea) it’s hard to think of a more appropriate competitive debut at St Mary’s. 

Then the first ‘Mayflower Derby’ of the season. A, hopefully, sunny August Saturday down in Plymouth spent playing a team who dislike Portsmouth almost as much as we do. Lovely!

Don’t worry I’m not listening off all the games just so happens the first three have curious narratives.

Naturally when fixtures are released, eyes fixate on the opening matches, Boxing Day, the final day & trying to determine those ‘tough runs.’

September, on paper, looks a little sticky. The two longest away trips - Sunderland and Middlesbrough - at either end of them month. These sandwiching two home clashes with Leicester and League One runners up Ipswich. Ending the month at home to Leeds.

Can we do it on a cold Tuesday night in Stoke? Well we’ll find out on 3rd October, more interesting that month though is the visit of Rotherham to St Mary’s. 7th October will be the Millers first ever time at St Mary’s. There’s only been two matches between the sides this century; FA Cup 2002 & League Cup 2008. Both occasions Rotherham played host. Not very courteous hosts though as twice they beat Southampton. We travel to the New York Stadium on February 3rd.

Festive fixtures are quintessentially British. Some countries have winter breaks, we have 4 games in 10 days. Starting with December 23rd QPR (A) before Swansea (H) on Boxing Day. Sure Russell Martin is delighted at hosting an ex the day after Christmas. If one ex wasn’t enough, after part two of the Mayflower Derby on the 29th, Southampton travel to Norwich on January 1st. Someone, somewhere has done Russell Martin dirty!

Less than a month after hosting ex no.1, we travel to South Wales - January 20th. Warm welcome not expected.

March, predominantly, sees the reverse fixtures to the tough run in September. This majority of fixtures in this month at St Mary’s, not that home form was at all helpful last season.

Final home game of the season is Stoke before a final day clash with Leeds. Promotion in the 11/12 season started with a home victory over Leeds, an away win to seal a similar fate would be exquisite.

Caveat, a LOT of football to be played before then.

With a schedule in place, now is the time for that sort of excitement and pre-planning. In what is hopefully a one season stint back in the Championship it’s a great chance to tick off new grounds, reignite those feelings from the early 2010s and dare we say it….. win some matches.

Season In Brief - Southampton

The higher stakes sequel to the season in brief following Winchester City in the Southern League Premier South. The Premier League slightly more grandiose than level 7 of the footballing pyramid nevertheless the premise remains the same, three games across the season to encapsulate the campaign.

Both cities share the SO postcode, they did not share similar fortunes. Southampton's season, including three outgoing managers and sixteen incoming senior players, suffered greater public scrutiny. Rightly so. Relegation was confirmed with two games to play, an average of 0.9 goals per game while conceding 1.92 goals per game.

A dismal season summed up nicely by defeats at home to Newcastle & Wolves and, strangely, a draw away to Arsenal.

Southampton 1-4 Newcastle

It doesn't take a date analysist to tell you Saints, statistically, should have won this game. Underperforming expected goals (xG) was a constant issue, in total this season Southampton scored 36 goals vs an expected 38. The madness of the final day against Liverpool actually skews the metric, making it look not as tragic as it was.

Mohammed Elynoussi & Che Adams the biggest underperformers in xG this Premier League campaign. Moi scoring one goal (xG of 3) and Che scoring 5 (xG of 7). This match a prime example of underperforming in front of goal.

At 0-1 both had golden chances to equalise. In the first half, a driven Stu Armstrong cross was met by the on rushing Elynoussi, the shot blazing over the bar. One of those 'easier to score than miss moments.' In the second half Elynoussi turned provider as he floated a cross to the back post for Che Adams to drag his volley wide. Its real hard to win football matches when you don't score.

Sure enough Newcastle had no such issues. Chris Wood adding a second before a counter attack saw Joe Willock mis-hit a shot past hapless Bazunu. An argument to made that Baz should've done better particular when you consider the overall xG of the match (above). Undoubtedly the Irish international has struggled this season however it is a gigantic leap from League 1 to the Premier League.

True to their 0.9 per game average, Southampton did manage a consolation goal late in the game. Romain Perraud the surprise scorer. Unlike his piledriver against West Ham in the FA Cup the season before, he took this goal gracefully. A fake-shot to go past the sliding Dan Burn, before finessing a shot with his weaker foot. Perraud would go on to be joint third top goalscorer (4) in all competitions, sharing third with Charly Alcaraz who wouldn't join the club until mid January.

A left back and a January signing on the goalscoring podium, not hard to identify a lack of clinical edge as a huge issue this season.

Southampton 1-2 Wolves

One of many egregious singular goal defeats - thirteen in total. This scoreline varience plagued our season. Happening seven times in away matches and six times at St Mary’s. In the case of fixtures against Villa, Wolves & Forest, it happened in both encounters home and away.

Granted selecting the specific match that best represent singular goal defeats plighting our season was tough. It was a toss up with this and Forest at home (0-1.) Earlier we discussed Ralph’s last match in charge, a fitting narrative to include the mad Welshman’s final match as a Premier League manager. 

Banging the goalscoring drum again, this game highlights a key aspect of the second half of the season. Charly Alcaraz with the only Southampton goal, as mentioned before he finished joint third top scorer in all competitions. Third outright in the Premier League, only one behind Che Adams. Furthermore in the period 26/12/22 to 04/03/23 only he and JWP would score in the Premier League.

As Jones would often say the Liverpool (A) game didn’t count on his win ratio thus Adams goal in that match isn’t on his quota - only two players scored Premier League goals under Nathan Jones. Laughable!

Despite ‘not many better than him in Europe,’ NJ’s ineptitude shone bright throughout his reign; changing shape five times in the first half at home to Brighton, failing to nullify Fulham’s set piece threat & his stubborn fixation with playing a back five with a group of players not suited to do so. 

Ignoring the mind boggling notion that somehow Mr Mining Community is potentially the man that stopped Manchester City’s quadruple, the lineup against Wolves with a front two of Kamaldeen & Onuachu, an AFCON Crouchy/Defoe if you will. Bizarrely it appeared Jones had stumbled onto something resembling a plan going forward. 

Inevitably, given his lack of elite managerial experience, he shat the bed. Overseeing a 1-2 defeat, the opposition down to 10 men after 30 minutes. 

Noticeably, NJ’s game management wasn’t quite at the level (lovely use of diplomacy there I must say.) Withholding his substitutions until after Wolves equalised was a huge error. 

Starting big Paul, in this game, worked but to ask your 6’7 striker chase and harass a back line while your side drops deeper and deeper is ridiculous. Adams should’ve been introduced far earlier. 

To be out passed and to attempt the sheer number of long balls, admittedly not quite at 75 Vs Forest levels but still ludicrous. An extra man on the field yes but Southampton’s 12th man exceedingly disillusioned. 

Thankfully NJ was sacked after this match, bringing an end to his 14 game stint in charge. A period in which Southampton won just one league game during arguably the most favourable period of fixtures. 

The writing on the wall certainly stencilled out at this point.

Arsenal 3-3 Southampton

How does a point away at title challengers Arsenal contribute to overall arc of this season?

It lends itself to a prominent sub-category of decent results that in context are not really helpful. 

Alongside Manchester City the only other team to avoid defeat in both Premier League meetings against Arsenal was Southampton, drawing 1-1 at St Mary’s & 3-3 in North London. This campaign Southampton managed to beat Chelsea home & away, appreciate right now this isn’t that impressive however back in August 22 Chelsea were a functional side, the victory arguably the best of Saints league season.

A 0-0 draw at Old Trafford that potentially Southampton should’ve won - that Manchester United game one of Bazunu’s better displays. A spirited comeback against Spurs from 3-1 down to grab a point with a last minute penalty. Can even chuck in the final day 4-4 thriller versus Liverpool into the mix. Caveated by the fact it was a second choice goalkeeper and defence starting for Klopp’s side, the result nevertheless impressive.

Compare these relative scalps to a total of 20 points won - out of a possible 54 - against teams in the bottom half.

Taking some points of the ‘big six’ is great but ultimately irrelevant if you can’t win against those around you. *cough *cough home to Forest, Wolves and Bournemouth.

On a more literal sense of the seasonal symbolism, Charly Alcaraz scored (again) after a kind assist from Aaron Ramsdale. Charly emerging as a fan’s favourite, potentially a cult hero in the making - a new Guly Do Prado?

Shockingly Saints doubled their lead through Walcott, 0-2. When Duje Caleta-Car made it 1-3 in the second half pandemonium ensued in the away end.

Over the last few season Southampton have had a reputation for losing points from winning positions. This match was no different. Conceding two goals in the final 10 minutes, nearly fully capitulating if JWP hadn’t got a vital block on a Reiss Nelson shot.

A match between 1st and 20th, almost all Saints fans would’ve taken the point pre match but upon reflection definitely two points dropped. Oddly this our only point secured in April and wouldn’t secure another point until Liverpool on the final day of the season.

Respectable results, contextually irrelevant.

Keeping it brief

Lack of goals, single goal defeats & good results scattered amidst a sea of shoddy displays! Quick footnote about the emergence of Romeo Lavia as a mercurial talent and that’s pretty much the season. 

Rule of three template is a cruel mistress so sadly Lavia missed out in this account. He was subbed off pre collapse against Arsenal, showing how without the teenager we struggle to control games - a player we’ll undoubtedly need to live without in the championship next season.

Championship football awaits, a typically difficult competition to navigate. The nature of a 46 game season often creates cagey moments, Southampton cannot afford to struggle in the goalscoring department as much as they have. Nor can the Saints afford to continue to fall the wrong side of those pesky one goal score lines.

Southampton 2.0 leapfrog the originals

 

In a springtime ode to A Christmas Carol, Southampton Vs Brighton shone light on the Saints past, present and the future both on and off the pitch 

While Brighton fans might hate it, the Southampton 2.0 tag is appropriate. At the start of the 2010s the two topped League One, Southampton would complete back to back promotions the following season whereas Brighton would remain in the Championship until 2017. 

Brighton owner Tony bloom (in 2017) referred to Southampton as a ‘club we can look to model ourselves on.’ Southampton at the time coming off the back of an 8th place finish, Europa League group stage participation and a League Cup final. 

That was then. As for the now, Brighton have well and truly leapfrogged Southampton. Everything that was said about the Saints then is the same rhetoric around the Seagulls now. 

Both sides will be playing football in other European countries next season, sadly for Saints that country is Wales. 

At present Brighton are at the peak of their powers. With no due disrespect, a potential 6th place finish is the glass ceiling for a side like Brighton. Southampton achieving this back in the 2015/16 season adds to the parallels surrounding the 2.0 commentary.

To Brighton, Southampton serve as a stark reminder that view from the mountain top is pretty but the fall can be excruciating. Along the way Southampton lost a plethora of players; Van Dijk, Mane, Clyne, Lovren and these are just the ones that went to Liverpool. Alexis Mac-Allister and Moises Caicedo both look set for exits, question marks over whether Mitoma or Ferguson will be poached. De Zerbi, the Italian Ronald Koeman, will he see Brighton as the most elite posting he’ll get or could the bright lights of Serie A come calling at some point.

While I can’t imagine Brighton offering Mark Hughes £2million to save them from relegation next season, the reality for any team outside the supposed top six is that a few poor decisions could derail the project.

Ghosts of Southampton 'past'

A midfield comprised of players that will soon be referred to as former players. JWP and Lavia continue their midfield partnership, alas a duo highly unlikely to join us in the Championship next season.

Both Walcott and Elynoussi have contracts expiring at the end of this season, Moi scoring his first goal of the season that ultimately will be the last for the club. Assisted, of course, by JWP who 5 minutes later played through Walcott to deftly lift the ball over Steele in the Brighton goal. Recurring pantomime villian VAR (Scrooge) had other ideas. A fourth incident of VAR overturning a goal for Southampton this calendar year, Walcott denied would could’ve been his last goal for the club.

A future with no VAR is a slight plus, no more will the hectic euphoria of scoring be snatched away from us.

Those present next season

With the centre of the midfield reminiscent of a ‘here’s what you could have won’ game show segment, elsewhere you had with Bree deputising at right back. Foreshadowing for the first weekend of August. Aribo as the 9, easily the most bizarre selection in the XI. For better or for worse the Nigerian will likely be here next season. I doubt he will continue in this role although his versatility given the playing demands of the Championship could prove useful.

Alongside Aribo, Alcaraz was operating somewhat as a no. 10, he continued to be a goal threat, having Southamptons best chance of the first half. A fast breakaway, combining with Walcott, the Argentine skewed his shot wide. As mentioned previously, Alcaraz is exactly the sort of player who could thrive in a Russell Martin team (should he be in charge next season.) Lots of internal and external negativity surrounds Southampton recent recruitment, Charly an outlier in this looking a key player going forward.

Clammer-man and the Academy Boys

A squad selection that ticked all past, present and future boxes was Tino Livramento back on the bench. 392 days after sustaining an injury at this very ground, a fitting moment to return. Livramento while injured became a “clammer-man” of sorts, feeling among the fan base being his return will start a new dawn - even if that new dawn is in the Championship.

Indeed in the, roughly, 20 minutes he played he posted respectable numbers. 24 touches, Completing 10/13 passes & winning 2/2 ground duels - a solid return to the fray.

The hope is predatory clubs are put off by the recency of Livramento’ injury allowing us to have him next season. Southampton handed Premier League debuts to two players who themselves may be part of the future project. 

Dominic Ballard & Kamari Doyle.

Ballard with one senior goal, Cambridge United (A) in the Carabao Cup second round, coming on to lead the line against Europa League chasing Brighton. There’s levels to this. Doyle on the other hand coming on for his senior debut in all competitions never mind the Premier League. Regardless of the lack of pressure with relegation confirmed, both players deserved the chance to step up having been critical to the B teams title win. 

Aside from Nathan Tella briefly in the Covid season, academy graduates have seldom had opportunity to play for the senior side. To see both, finally, get some minutes is undoubtedly a positive.

Unlike the climax of A Christmas Carol, Southampton do not turn into a kinder, gentler version of themselves post Brighton. Instead the reflective exercise enables some perspective in relation the state of play on and off the field. 

That perspective is that football is inherently cyclical, Brighton are at a peak whereas we are at the trough. This low will not last, future stars like Ballard, Doyle & Livramento providing belief that ‘good times’ are ahead.

What are Sport Republic RUSSling up?

Friday 19th May, AM, the messianic reporter Adam Blackmore has current Swansea City manager Russell Martin leading the race to become the next manager of Southampton. Friday afternoon The Athletic report an appointment is expected next week. 

The Brighton born former Scotland international defender is relatively new to management, taking charge of MK Dons in November 2019 before being headhunted for the Swansea City job in August 2021. 

His first season in the Championship he led the Swans to a 15th placed finish, this season finishing 10th. Perhaps on first inspection not the most eye catching CV. So why is the Englishmen, with Scotland caps, plying his trade in Wales high upon Sport Republic’s (SR) list?

At 37 years old Russell Martin certainly meets the profile of a young ‘up and coming’ manager to helm the flagship club of SR’s proposed multi club enterprise. Multi is this instance meaning two; Southampton & Goztepe (Turkey.) While perhaps not as Premier League savvy as others in contention, he has earned a reputation for playing an attractive style of football in his short managerial career. At the culmination of the 2020-21 season only Manchester City and Barcelona had a  higher average possession than Martin’s MK Dons side in Europe. Again last season Swansea had an average of 63.8% possession, second in the championship to champions Burnley. 

In contrast Southampton averaged 44.5% possession. 

Granted, there are relative economies of scale between the two divisions nevertheless an impressive statistic.

Ankersen’s master plan

Given the epic disaster of the mad Welshman, it’s natural to be skeptical about Rasmus Ankersen leading the search for the new manager. Particularly when two quotes from the Dane loiter in the minds of most Saints fans. Quotes synonymous with the trials and tribulations of this season

‘If it isn’t broke, think about breaking it” & ‘The league table lies’

As jarring as these maxims are the theory behind them does have some vague validity. The thinking behind the anti-establishment notion of the latter quote is that football, being a low scoring sport, is more impacted by random events in a match. A points tally therefore not totally indicative of a teams overall performance. 

Metrics such as xG differential and goal difference are seen as better indicators. 

So how does the potential appointment of Russell Martin shape up against this.

Unsurprisingly Martin’s Swansea side posted much better numbers in these metrics than Southampton this season. A goal difference of +4 whereas Southampton, at time of writing, -35. In terms of xG, Swansea 64.62 scoring 68 goals in total, in comparison Saints xG is 39.42 only scoring 31 goals. One side slightly over performing, one side significantly underperforming.

Promising signs for Russell-Ball. 

Coaching Masterclass - Playing preferences and philosophy

When the name Russell Martin (RM) first emerged it was a Talksport/Southern Daily Echo report that he and Plymouth boss Steven Schumacher were two names on the shortlist. Bizarrely, Plymouths high flying season, winning the League One title meant Martin out of the two was the greater unknown. A combination of a slow work day and fan curiosity, I checked out Russell Martin’s Masterclass episode on YouTube (The Coaches Voice.)

Here’s the key takeaways.

Frequently when discussing tactical approach to the game RM refers to his preferences. First key preference he states is for his sides to control or have the majority of the ball. Often managers use words like preferences or principals as buzzwords however with the second most average possession in the Championship it shows a coach following through with his ideals. Defensively, it’s his preference to never have big distances or have players waiting for a counter attack. Emphasising team shape and cohesion.

Connections and distances are important to RM.

Assuming the obvious players leave, below is brief attempt at how Southampton could look as a Russell Martin side.

The Southampton way of 4-2-2-2 would almost certainly be abandoned with 3-4-2-1 / 5-2-2-1 the formation of choice. RM though describes, in possession, he wants the pitch to look like a 2-3-2-3. One of the three centre backs, usually the middle CB, stepping into midfield to help control the ball. Ball playing isn’t necessarily a quality associated with the CBs you expect to stay on in the championship. Duje Caleta-Car, probably the best passer of the remaining defenders. He alongside the returning Jack Stephens and Jan Bednarek are the best fit for this system.

The two central midfielders in this structure are a typical 4 & 6, a deep laying playmaker alongside a more typical CM. This, given expected departures, could be the hardest part to guesstimate. Will Smallbone returns from his season long loan at Stoke City you imagine he starts next season. 

In the next ‘2’ are two 8s / 10s who he asks to “roll,” essentially dropping deep to draw defenders forward allowing space in behind - space for former Saint Michael Obafemi as explained in the video. If defences don’t engage these players interlink to carve openings via ball carries and smart passing. Immediately Stu Armstrong and Alcaraz spring to mind for these roles

The attacking ‘3’ comprised of two advance wing backs and a central striker. Wing backs are crucial to maintaining width in Martin’s structure. Tino Livramento or James Bree would suit playing in the right channel, hopefully Perraud stays slotting into the left channel. The striker is encouraged to play in between centre backs and not get stuck up against them. Given RM’s use of Obafemi, before his transfer to Burnley in January, Adam Armstrong best fits that type of striker profile. Equally Adams and Mara are hardly target men, both you’d assume would be able to work in this capacity. 

The external noise now is that this appointment is, if not imminent, then certainly firmly in the pipeline. A new Manager, a new Head of Recruitment (Aberdeen’s Darren Mowbray) & Jason Wilcox starting as Director of Football, Sport Republic are showing intent to establish structure behind the scenes. 

Hopefully these all lead to success in the upcoming campaign, in fairness Sport Republic would be hard pressed to have a worse second season.